DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2016.11.005
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84995776629
论文题名: The uncertainty of nitrous oxide emissions from grazed grasslands: A New Zealand case study
作者: Kelliher F ; M ; , Henderson H ; V ; , Cox N ; R
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2017
卷: 148 起始页码: 329
结束页码: 336
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Agriculture
; Inventory
; Nitrous oxide
; Soils
; Uncertainty
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Greenhouse gases
; Monte Carlo methods
; Nitrogen
; Nitrogen oxides
; Normal distribution
; Ozone layer
; Soils
; Emissions inventory
; Inventory
; Logarithmic normal distribution
; Monte Carlo numerical simulations
; Nitrous oxide
; Nitrous oxide emissions
; Scientific community
; Uncertainty
; Uncertainty analysis
; nitrogen
; agricultural emission
; agricultural soil
; analytical method
; anthropogenic source
; emission inventory
; grassland
; greenhouse gas
; Monte Carlo analysis
; nitrogen oxides
; nitrous oxide
; soil emission
; stratosphere
; uncertainty analysis
; agricultural land
; analytic method
; Article
; carbon footprint
; case study
; grassland
; grazing
; land use
; Monte Carlo method
; New Zealand
; nitrous oxide emission
; priority journal
; uncertainty
; New Zealand
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology
; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes
; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Agricultural soils emit nitrous oxide (N2O), a greenhouse gas and the primary source of nitrogen oxides which deplete stratospheric ozone. Agriculture has been estimated to be the largest anthropogenic N2O source. In New Zealand (NZ), pastoral agriculture uses half the land area. To estimate the annual N2O emissions from NZ's agricultural soils, the nitrogen (N) inputs have been determined and multiplied by an emission factor (EF), the mass fraction of N inputs emitted as N2O[sbnd]N. To estimate the associated uncertainty, we developed an analytical method. For comparison, another estimate was determined by Monte Carlo numerical simulation. For both methods, expert judgement was used to estimate the N input uncertainty. The EF uncertainty was estimated by meta-analysis of the results from 185 NZ field trials. For the analytical method, assuming a normal distribution and independence of the terms used to calculate the emissions (correlation = 0), the estimated 95% confidence limit was ±57%. When there was a normal distribution and an estimated correlation of 0.4 between N input and EF, the latter inferred from experimental data involving six NZ soils, the analytical method estimated a 95% confidence limit of ±61%. The EF data from 185 NZ field trials had a logarithmic normal distribution. For the Monte Carlo method, assuming a logarithmic normal distribution for EF, a normal distribution for the other terms and independence of all terms, the estimated 95% confidence limits were −32% and +88% or ±60% on average. When there were the same distribution assumptions and a correlation of 0.4 between N input and EF, the Monte Carlo method estimated 95% confidence limits were −34% and +94% or ±64% on average. For the analytical and Monte Carlo methods, EF uncertainty accounted for 95% and 83% of the emissions uncertainty when the correlation between N input and EF was 0 and 0.4, respectively. As the first uncertainty analysis of an agricultural soils N2O emissions inventory using “country-specific” field trials to estimate EF uncertainty, this can be a potentially informative case study for the international scientific community. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/82825
Appears in Collections: 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: AgResearch, Lincoln Research Centre, Private Bag 4749, Christchurch, New Zealand; Lincoln University, Department of Soil and Physical Sciences, P.O. Box 84, Lincoln, New Zealand; AgResearch, Ruakura Research Centre, Private Bag 3123, Hamilton, New Zealand
Recommended Citation:
Kelliher F,M,, Henderson H,et al. The uncertainty of nitrous oxide emissions from grazed grasslands: A New Zealand case study[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2017-01-01,148