globalchange  > 气候变化事实与影响
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2018.04.006
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85045688029
论文题名:
Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool
作者: Pisoni E; , Albrecht D; , Mara T; A; , Rosati R; , Tarantola S; , Thunis P
刊名: Atmospheric Environment
ISSN: 0168-2563
EISSN: 1573-515X
出版年: 2018
卷: 183
起始页码: 84
结束页码: 93
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Air quality modelling ; Model quality assurance ; Sensitivity analysis ; Surrogate models ; Uncertainty analysis
Scopus关键词: Air quality ; Decision making ; Emission control ; Quality assurance ; Quality control ; Sensitivity analysis ; Air quality improvement ; Air quality modelling ; Decision making process ; Emission reduction potentials ; Model qualities ; Regional air quality ; Surrogate model ; Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis ; Uncertainty analysis
Scopus学科分类: Environmental Science: Water Science and Technology ; Earth and Planetary Sciences: Earth-Surface Processes ; Environmental Science: Environmental Chemistry
英文摘要: Air quality has significantly improved in Europe over the past few decades. Nonetheless we still find high concentrations in measurements mainly in specific regions or cities. This dimensional shift, from EU-wide to hot-spot exceedances, calls for a novel approach to regional air quality management (to complement EU-wide existing policies). The SHERPA (Screening for High Emission Reduction Potentials on Air quality) modelling tool was developed in this context. It provides an additional tool to be used in support to regional/local decision makers responsible for the design of air quality plans. It is therefore important to evaluate the quality of the SHERPA model, and its behavior in the face of various kinds of uncertainty. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis techniques can be used for this purpose. They both reveal the links between assumptions and forecasts, help in-model simplification and may highlight unexpected relationships between inputs and outputs. Thus, a policy steered SHERPA module - predicting air quality improvement linked to emission reduction scenarios - was evaluated by means of (1) uncertainty analysis (UA) to quantify uncertainty in the model output, and (2) by sensitivity analysis (SA) to identify the most influential input sources of this uncertainty. The results of this study provide relevant information about the key variables driving the SHERPA output uncertainty, and advise policy-makers and modellers where to place their efforts for an improved decision-making process. © 2018 The Authors
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/82863
Appears in Collections:气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate for Energy Transport and Climate, Air and Climate Unit, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA, Italy; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate I - Competences - Modelling, Indicators & Impact Evaluation Unit, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA, Italy; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Directorate for Energy Transport and Climate, Energy Security Distribution and Markets Unit, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA, Italy

Recommended Citation:
Pisoni E,, Albrecht D,, Mara T,et al. Application of uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to the air quality SHERPA modelling tool[J]. Atmospheric Environment,2018-01-01,183
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