DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064240
论文题名: Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming
作者: Bloch-Johnson J. ; Pierrehumbert R.T. ; Abbot D.S.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8691
EISSN: 1944-8422
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 12 起始页码: 4973
结束页码: 4980
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate sensitivity
; GCMs
; long tail
; nonlinear feedbacks
; observational estimates
Scopus关键词: Nonlinear feedback
; Risk perception
; Temperature distribution
; Climate sensitivity
; Energy balance models
; GCMs
; General circulation model
; Long tail
; Observational estimates
; Temperature dependence
; Temperature dependent
; Feedback
; anthropogenic effect
; carbon dioxide
; energy balance
; feedback mechanism
; general circulation model
; nonlinearity
; observational method
; risk assessment
; sensitivity analysis
; temperature gradient
; warming
英文摘要: The long-term warming from an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 is often assumed to be proportional to the forcing associated with that increase. This paper examines this linear approximation using a zero-dimensional energy balance model with a temperature-dependent feedback, with parameter values drawn from physical arguments and general circulation models. For a positive feedback temperature dependence, warming increases Earth's sensitivity, while greater sensitivity makes Earth warm more. These effects can feed on each other, greatly amplifying warming. As a result, for reasonable values of feedback temperature dependence and preindustrial feedback, Earth can jump to a warmer state under only one or two CO2 doublings. The linear approximation breaks down in the long tail of high climate sensitivity commonly seen in observational studies. Understanding feedback temperature dependence is therefore essential for inferring the risk of high warming from modern observations. Studies that assume linearity likely underestimate the risk of high warming. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84948720719&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064240&partnerID=40&md5=e39f3b0f123a6897f8056353e7d56768
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8307
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Department of the Geophysical Sciences, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bloch-Johnson J.,Pierrehumbert R.T.,Abbot D.S.. Feedback temperature dependence determines the risk of high warming[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(12).