DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064309
论文题名: The annual cycle in ENSO growth rate as a cause of the spring predictability barrier
作者: Levine A.F.Z. ; McPhaden M.J.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8694
EISSN: 1944-8425
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 12 起始页码: 5034
结束页码: 5041
语种: 英语
英文关键词: ENSO
; Growth Rate
; Multiplicative Noise
; Spring Predictability Barrier
Scopus关键词: Locks (fasteners)
; Boreal Spring
; Boreal winters
; ENSO
; ENSO forecast
; Multiplicative noise
; Phase-locking
; Recharge oscillator
; State-dependent noise
; Growth rate
; annual cycle
; El Nino-Southern Oscillation
; forecasting method
; growth rate
; hypothesis testing
; noise
; prediction
; spring (season)
; uncertainty analysis
英文摘要: The spring predictability barrier increases the uncertainty in ENSO forecasts starting before and during the boreal spring. Recent work has shown that the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is responsible for phase locking of peak ENSO development to the boreal winter, suggesting that this annual cycle may play a role in the spring predictability barrier. To test this hypothesis, the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is added to a damped, noise-driven conceptual recharge oscillator model. When the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is included, a spring predictability barrier develops, whereas without it ENSO predictability is independent of the forecast start date. When state-dependent noise is included in the simulations in addition to the annual cycle of the growth rate, the spring predictability barrier is enhanced and more realistic. © 2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84939844835&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL064309&partnerID=40&md5=582c5fbf1cd68601def498471a6f9a6f
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8310
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: NOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Levine A.F.Z.,McPhaden M.J.. The annual cycle in ENSO growth rate as a cause of the spring predictability barrier[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(12).