DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063569
论文题名: Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies
作者: Herger N. ; Sanderson B.M. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8697
EISSN: 1944-8428
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 9 起始页码: 3486
结束页码: 3494
语种: 英语
英文关键词: climate impacts
; CMIP5
; emulator
; pattern scaling
; RCP scenarios
Scopus关键词: Earth sciences
; Geophysics
; Climate impacts
; CMIP5
; Emulator
; Pattern scaling
; RCP scenarios
; Climate models
; accuracy assessment
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; climate prediction
; error correction
; global climate
; interpolation
英文摘要: Pattern scaling is a simple way to produce climate projections beyond the scenarios run with expensive global climate models (GCMs). The simplest technique has known limitations and assumes that a spatial climate anomaly pattern obtained from a GCM can be scaled by the global mean temperature (GMT) anomaly. We propose alternatives and assess their skills and limitations. One approach which avoids scaling is to consider a period in a different scenario with the same GMT change. It is attractive as it provides patterns of any temporal resolution that are consistent across variables, and it does not distort variability. Second, we extend the traditional approach with a land-sea contrast term, which provides the largest improvements over the traditional technique. When interpolating between known bounding scenarios, the proposed methods significantly improve the accuracy of the pattern scaled scenario with little computational cost. The remaining errors are much smaller than the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 model spread. Key Points Improved pattern scaling approaches are proposed and tested with CMIP5 models Skill improves when land-sea temperature contrast is considered Pattern scaling error is significantly smaller than the CMIP5 model spread ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84930473295&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063569&partnerID=40&md5=2b0307384feba11496cb8c14578fdafa
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8313
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Herger N.,Sanderson B.M.,Knutti R.. Improved pattern scaling approaches for the use in climate impact studies[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(9).