globalchange  > 科学计划与规划
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063876
论文题名:
Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends
作者: Wahl T.; Plant N.G.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8733
EISSN: 1944-8464
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期:8
起始页码: 2943
结束页码: 2950
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Central Gulf of Mexico ; changes in seasonal cycles ; coastal erosion and flooding risk ; long-term trends ; sea level rise ; wave climate
Scopus关键词: Erosion ; Ocean currents ; Risk perception ; Sea level ; Flooding risks ; Gulf of Mexico ; Long-term trend ; Sea level rise ; Seasonal cycle ; Wave climates ; Floods ; beach erosion ; flooding ; sea level change ; seasonal variation ; temporal variation ; wave action ; Atlantic Ocean ; Gulf of Mexico
英文摘要: We assess temporal variations in waves and sea level, which are driving factors for beach erosion and coastal flooding in the northern Gulf of Mexico. We find that long-term trends in the relevant variables have caused an increase of ∼30% in the erosion/flooding risk since the 1980s. Changes in the wave climate - which have often been ignored in earlier assessments - were at least as important as sea level rise (SLR). In the next decades, SLR will likely become the dominating driver and may in combination with ongoing changes in the wave climate (and depending on the emission scenario) escalate the erosion/flooding risk by up to 300% over the next 30 years. We also find significant changes in the seasonal cycles of sea level and significant wave height, which have in combination caused a considerable increase of the erosion/flooding risk in summer and decrease in winter relative to long-term trends. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84929513101&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063876&partnerID=40&md5=b53de2b76517e406304c834d62829dfa
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8349
Appears in Collections:科学计划与规划
气候变化与战略

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作者单位: College of Marine Science, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, FL, United States

Recommended Citation:
Wahl T.,Plant N.G.. Changes in erosion and flooding risk due to long-term and cyclic oceanographic trends[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(8).
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