DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2145-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044513114
论文题名: National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes
作者: Kay A.L. ; Bell V.A. ; Guillod B.P. ; Jones R.G. ; Rudd A.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 585
结束页码: 599
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Drought
; Great Britain
; Hydrology
; Low flows
; River flow
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Data reduction
; Drought
; Hydrology
; Stream flow
; Water supply
; Carbon dioxide concentrations
; Great Britain
; Hydrological extremes
; Hydrological modeling
; Low flow
; Potential evaporation
; Regional climate modeling
; River flow
; Climate models
英文摘要: The potential impact of climate change on hydrological extremes is of increasing concern across the globe. Here, a national-scale grid-based hydrological model is used to investigate historical trends and potential future changes in low flow frequency across Great Britain. The historical analyses use both observational data (1891–2015) and ensemble data from a regional climate model (1900–2006). The results show relatively few significant trends in historical low flows (2- or 20-year return period), whether based on 7- or 30-day annual minima. Significant negative trends seen in some limited parts of the country when using observational data are generally not seen when using climate model data. The future analyses use climate model ensemble data for both near future and far future time periods (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 respectively), which are compared to a baseline sub-period from the historical ensemble (1975–2004). The results show future reductions in low flows, which are generally larger in the south of the country, at the higher (20-year) return period, and for the later time period. Reductions are more limited if the estimates of future potential evaporation include the effect of increased carbon dioxide concentrations on stomatal resistance. Such reductions in river flow could have significant impacts on the aquatic environment and on agriculture, and present a challenge for water managers, especially as reductions in water supply are likely to occur alongside increases in demand. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83738
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom; Institute for Environmental Decisions, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Kay A.L.,Bell V.A.,Guillod B.P.,et al. National-scale analysis of low flow frequency: historical trends and potential future changes[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)