DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2159-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85042904397
论文题名: Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution
作者: Xu H. ; Brown D.G. ; Steiner A.L.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 647
结束页码: 662
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Conservation
; Eutrophication
; Forestry
; Greenhouse gases
; Lake pollution
; Lakes
; Land use
; Nutrients
; Optimization
; Pollution
; Quality control
; Site selection
; Water pollution
; Water quality
; Watersheds
; Agricultural conservation
; Conservation actions
; Dissolved reactive phosphorus
; Economic efficiency
; Integrated modeling approaches
; Land use and managements
; Spatial optimization
; Spatial optimization model
; Climate change
英文摘要: Beginning in the mid-1990s, re-eutrophication has reemerged as severe problems in Lake Erie. Controlling non-point source (NPS) nutrient pollution from cropland, especially dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), is the key to restore water quality in Lake Erie. To address NPS pollution, previous studies have analyzed the effectiveness of alternative spatially optimal land use and management strategies (represented as agricultural conservation practices (CPs)). However, few studies considered both strategies and have analyzed and compared their sensitivity to expected changes in temperature and precipitation due to climate change and increased greenhouse gas concentrations. In this study, we evaluated impacts of climatic change on the economic efficiency of these strategies for DRP abatement, using an integrated modeling approach that includes a watershed model, an economic valuation component, and a spatial optimization model. A series of climate projections representing relatively high greenhouse gas emission scenarios was developed for the western Lake Erie basin to drive the watershed model. We found that performance of solutions optimized for current climate was degraded significantly under projected future climate conditions. In terms of robustness of individual strategies, CPs alone were more robust to climate change than land use change alone or together with CPs, but relying on CPs alone fails to achieve a high (> 71%) DRP reduction target. A combination of CPs and land use changes was required to achieve policy goals for DRP reductions (targeted at ~ 78%). Our results point to the need for future spatial optimization studies and planning to consider adaptive capacity of conservation actions under a changing climate. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83740
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States; Energy Systems Division, Argonne National Laboratory, Lemont, IL, United States; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; Department of Climate and Space Science and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, United States
Recommended Citation:
Xu H.,Brown D.G.,Steiner A.L.. Sensitivity to climate change of land use and management patterns optimized for efficient mitigation of nutrient pollution[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)