DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2158-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043690890
论文题名: The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas
作者: Warren R. ; Price J. ; VanDerWal J. ; Cornelius S. ; Sohl H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 395
结束页码: 409
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biodiversity
; Conservation
; Emission control
; Global warming
; Industrial emissions
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Adaptation to climate changes
; Biodiversity conservation
; Climate scenarios
; Conservation areas
; Conservation planning
; Emission reduction
; Pre-industrial levels
; United Nations
; Climate change
; Animalia
英文摘要: Climate change is already affecting species and their distributions. Distributional range changes have occurred and are projected to intensify for many widespread plants and animals, creating associated risks to many ecosystems. Here, we estimate the climate change-related risks to the species in globally significant biodiversity conservation areas over a range of climate scenarios, assessing their value as climate refugia. In particular, we quantify the aggregated benefit of countries’ emission reduction pledges (Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement), and also of further constraining global warming to 2 °C above pre-industrial levels, against an unmitigated scenario of 4.5 °C warming. We also quantify the contribution that can be made by using smart spatial conservation planning to facilitate some levels of autonomous (i.e. natural) adaptation to climate change by dispersal. We find that without mitigation, on average 33% of each conservation area can act as climate refugium (or 18% if species are unable to disperse), whereas if warming is constrained to 2 °C, the average area of climate refuges doubles to 67% of each conservation area (or, without dispersal, more than doubles to 56% of each area). If the country pledges are fulfilled, an intermediate estimate of 47–52% (or 31–38%, without dispersal) is obtained. We conclude that the Nationally Determined Contributions alone have important but limited benefits for biodiversity conservation, with larger benefits accruing if warming is constrained to 2 °C. Greater benefits would result if warming was constrained to well below 2 °C as set out in the Paris Agreement. © 2018, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83754
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Tyndall Centre and School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; Centre for Tropical Biodiversity and Climate Change and e-Research Centre, James Cook University, Townsville, Australia; WWF-UK, The Living Planet Centre, Rufford House, Brewery Rd, Woking, United Kingdom
Recommended Citation:
Warren R.,Price J.,VanDerWal J.,et al. The implications of the United Nations Paris Agreement on climate change for globally significant biodiversity areas[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)