globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2157-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85043359531
论文题名:
Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico
作者: Monterroso-Rivas A.I.; Conde-Álvarez A.C.; Pérez-Damian J.L.; López-Blanco J.; Gaytan-Dimas M.; Gómez-Díaz J.D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 457
结束页码: 473
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture ; Adaptive capacity ; Agricultural sector ; Me-xico ; Multi-temporal ; Time-periods ; Vulnerability evaluations ; Climate change ; agroindustry ; assessment method ; climate change ; nature-society relations ; vulnerability ; Mexico [North America]
英文摘要: Vulnerability to climate change was evaluated for three different time periods: 1990, 2000, and 2010. Our objective was to discuss the scope of a multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability. The method used 55 indicators—with emphasis on the agricultural sector in Mexico—of which 27 were updated for the year 2010 and 33 were retrospectively estimated for the year 1990. The results show that in the 20-year study period, the exposure of the municipalities (and inhabitants) has increased, and sensitivity and adaptive capacity have decreased. The number of municipalities vulnerable to climate change declined over the 20-year period. We found that calculating vulnerability by adding exposure and sensitivity and subtracting adaptive capacity (E + S − AC) can lead to unintentional underestimation of total vulnerability. When rating vulnerability, care must be taken in what is reported: the results differ for the number of inhabitants versus the number of municipalities. Our previous published vulnerability evaluation was for the year 2000, so we wanted to evaluate the sensitivity of some variables and the vulnerability formula itself we used in that moment. It is possible to evaluate the vulnerability multi-temporally, which allows to evaluate the sensibility and calibration of the variables and indicators used and the reconsideration of their application. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83755
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Departamento de Suelos, Universidad Autónoma Chapingo, Km 38.5 Carretera México-Texcoco Chapingo, Texcoco, Estado de México, Mexico; Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Circuito de la Investigación Científica s/n, Ciudad Universitaria, Ciudad de México, Mexico; Dirección de Gestión de Riesgos y Adaptación al Cambio Climático, Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático, INECC, Periférico sur 5000, Insurgentes Cuicuilco, Ciudad de México, Mexico; Environmental Change Consulting, Sánchez de la Barquera 13-B509, Merced Gómez, Mexico

Recommended Citation:
Monterroso-Rivas A.I.,Conde-Álvarez A.C.,Pérez-Damian J.L.,et al. Multi-temporal assessment of vulnerability to climate change: insights from the agricultural sector in Mexico[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-03-04)
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