DOI: 10.1007/s10584-018-2183-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85044524058
论文题名: Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines
作者: Daron J. ; Macadam I. ; Kanamaru H. ; Cinco T. ; Katzfey J. ; Scannell C. ; Jones R. ; Villafuerte M. ; II ; Cruz F. ; Narisma G. ; Delfino R.J. ; Lasco R. ; Manalo J. ; Ares E. ; Solis A.L. ; de Guzman R. ; Basconcillo J. ; Tangang F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 17
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Decision making
; Information use
; Agriculture sectors
; Climate change policies
; Climate projection
; Climate science
; Future climate projections
; Growing demand
; Local adaptation
; User communities
; Climate change
英文摘要: To meet the growing demand for climate change information to guide national and local adaptation decision-making in the Philippines, the climate science and services community is producing an increasing volume of future climate data using a range of modelling approaches. However, there is a significant methodological challenge in how to best compare and combine information produced using different models and methods. In this paper, we present the landscape of climate model data available in the Philippines and show how multi-model, multi-method climate projections are being used and communicated to inform climate change policy and planning, focusing on the agriculture sector. We highlight the importance of examining and communicating methodological strengths and weaknesses as well as understanding the needs and capabilities of different user communities. We discuss the assessment of projections from different methods, including global and regional downscaled simulations, and discuss ways to summarise and communicate this information to stakeholders using co-production approaches. The paper concludes with perspectives on how to best use an “ensemble of opportunity” to construct defensible, plausible and usable climate projections. © 2018 The Author(s) Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83758
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom; Rome, Italy; Quezon City, Philippines; Aspendale, Australia; Manila Observatory, Quezon City, Philippines; Ateneo de Manila University, Quezon City, Philippines; Oscar M. Lopez Center, Pasig City, Philippines; Jeju National University, Jeju City, South Korea; School of Environmental and Natural Resource Sciences, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, Bangi, Malaysia
Recommended Citation:
Daron J.,Macadam I.,Kanamaru H.,et al. Providing future climate projections using multiple models and methods: insights from the Philippines[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01