DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2132-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85041099507
论文题名: The safe carbon budget
作者: van der Ploeg F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 47
结束页码: 59
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Costs
; Fossil fuels
; Global warming
; Aggregate production
; Carbon budgets
; Climate response
; Cumulative emissions
; Peak temperatures
; Production loss
; Renewable energies
; Willingness to accept
; Budget control
; alternative energy
; carbon budget
; carbon emission
; commodity price
; cost
; fossil fuel
; global warming
; resource economy
; temperature
英文摘要: Cumulative emissions drive peak global warming and determine the carbon budget needed to keep temperature below 2 or 1.5 °C. This safe carbon budget is low if uncertainty about the transient climate response is high and risk tolerance (willingness to accept risk of overshooting the temperature target) is low. Together with energy costs, this budget determines the optimal carbon price and how quickly fossil fuel is abated and replaced by renewable energy. This price is the sum of the present discounted value of all future losses in aggregate production due to emitting one ton of carbon today plus the cost of peak warming that rises over time to reflect the increasing scarcity of carbon as temperature approaches its upper limit. If policy makers ignore production losses, the carbon price rises more rapidly. If they ignore the peak temperature constraint, the carbon price rises less rapidly. The alternative of adjusting damages upwards to factor in the peak warming constraint leads initially to a higher carbon price which rises less rapidly. © 2018, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83775
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: OXCARRE, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, Manor Road Building, Oxford, United Kingdom; VU University Amsterdam, De Boelelaan 1105, Amsterdam, Netherlands; St. Petersburg State University, 7/9 Universitetskaya nab., St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Recommended Citation:
van der Ploeg F.. The safe carbon budget[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-01-02)