DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2131-9
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85040685056
论文题名: Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation
作者: Zhou Q. ; Hanasaki N. ; Fujimori S. ; Masaki Y. ; Hijioka Y.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 77
结束页码: 90
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Economic and social effects
; Fossil fuels
; Greenhouse gases
; Hydroelectric power
; Asia-pacific integrated models
; Climate change scenarios
; Global climate changes
; Gross domestic products
; Hydro-power generation
; Hydrological modeling
; Integrated assessment models
; Price competitiveness
; Climate change
; climate change
; competitiveness
; computable general equilibrium analysis
; economic impact
; fossil fuel
; global change
; global climate
; Gross Domestic Product
; hydroelectric power
; hydrological modeling
; mitigation
; policy analysis
; policy implementation
; power generation
; scenario analysis
; Brazil
; Middle East
; Pacific Ocean
; Pacific Rim
; USSR
英文摘要: Hydropower generation plays a key role in mitigating GHG emissions from the overall power supply. Although the maximum achievable hydropower generation (MAHG) will be affected by climate change, it is seldom incorporated in integrated assessment models. In this study, we first used the H08 global hydrological model to project MAHG under two physical climate change scenarios. Then, we used the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium integrated assessment model to quantify the economic consequences of the presence or absence of mitigation policy on hydropower generation. This approach enabled us to quantify the physical impacts of climate change and the effect of mitigation policy—together and in isolation—on hydropower generation and the economy, both globally and regionally. Although there was little overall global change, we observed substantial differences among regions in the MAHG average change (from − 71% in Middle East to 14% in Former Soviet Union in RCP8.5). We found that the magnitude of changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) was small negative (positive) in Brazil (Canada) by 2100, for the no mitigation policy scenario. These consequences were intensified with the implementation of mitigation policies that enhanced the price competitiveness of hydropower against fossil fuel-powered technologies. Overall, our results suggested that there would be no notable globally aggregated impacts on GDP by 2100 because the positive effects in some regions were canceled out by negative effects in other regions. © 2018, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83787
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Energy Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Zhou Q.,Hanasaki N.,Fujimori S.,et al. Economic consequences of global climate change and mitigation on future hydropower generation[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-01-02)