DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2121-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85038873863
论文题名: Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management
作者: Hohmann C. ; Kirchengast G. ; Birk S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 147, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 179
结束页码: 193
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Catchment hydrology
; Climate change
; Drought vulnerability
; Environmental changes
; Sensitivity analysis
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Climate models
; Drought
; Flood control
; Flow of water
; Irrigation
; Land use
; Risk assessment
; Risk perception
; Runoff
; Sensitivity analysis
; Water management
; Catchment hydrology
; Climatic drivers
; Environmental change
; Interactive effect
; Low flow condition
; Process-oriented
; Simulation model
; Water withdrawal
; Climate change
; alpine environment
; catchment
; climate change
; drought
; environmental change
; foreland basin
; hydrology
; irrigation
; land use
; model
; runoff
; sensitivity analysis
; temperature
; vulnerability
; water management
; Austria
英文摘要: Southeastern Austria as part of the southeastern Alpine forelands experiences an increase of temperature and a tendency of decreasing precipitation. Especially in summer, the temperature strongly increased by about 0.7 °C per decade since the 1970s. Drought vulnerability under climate change is therefore a key question in this region. Here, we address this question by exploring the hydrological sensitivity of the Raab catchment in Austria (area 987 km2), a typical catchment in these Alpine forelands. Using the process-oriented Water Flow and Balance Simulation Model (WaSiM) over 1982–2011, we focus on low-flow conditions during extended summer (May–September) and analyze the catchment’s runoff sensitivity to climate change, but also land use and water management change. We find that climate change drivers dominate the summertime runoff response (decrease > 40/> 70%), based on moderate and strong climate change cases in the region (temperature + 2/+ 4 K, precipitation − 15/− 30%). Land use changes towards more dry and sealed areas enhance surface runoff and thus may lead to somewhat increased flood peaks. In contrast, water withdrawal for irrigation reduces runoff during low-flow periods in the summer when the irrigation demand is high. Although the impact of these non-climatic drivers on runoff generally is lower than that of the climate change considered, their interactive effects may reinforce the catchment’s tendency of running drier during summer. While more detailed scenario-based assessments are needed to further assess drought risks, this initial study provides clear evidence for the vulnerability of Alpine foreland catchments to increasing summer dryness under climate change. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83792
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change (WEGC), University of Graz, Graz, Austria; FWF-DK Climate Change, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics, and Meteorology/Institute of Physics, University of Graz, Graz, Austria; Institute of Earth Sciences, NAWI Graz Geocenter, University of Graz, Graz, Austria
Recommended Citation:
Hohmann C.,Kirchengast G.,Birk S.. Alpine foreland running drier? Sensitivity of a drought vulnerable catchment to changes in climate, land use, and water management[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-01-02)