| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-017-2118-6
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85036530380
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| 论文题名: | Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change |
| 作者: | Parker L.E.; Abatzoglou J.T.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2018
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| 卷: | 147, 期:2018-01-02 | | 起始页码: | 211
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| 结束页码: | 224
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| 语种: | 英语
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| Scopus关键词: | Agriculture
; Biology
; Cultivation
; Land use
; Landforms
; Water management
; Agricultural industries
; Climate change adaptation
; Crop cultivation
; Heat accumulation
; Land-use decisions
; Management planning
; Reproductive development
; Western United States
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; agroindustry
; climate change
; climate conditions
; crop plant
; cropping practice
; cultivation
; dicotyledon
; geographical variation
; phenology
; California
; Central Valley [California]
; Oregon
; United States
; Willamette Valley
; Prunus dulcis
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| 英文摘要: | Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed ~ 2-week delay in chill accumulation and ~ 1- and ~ 2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers’ long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V., part of Springer Nature. |
| Citation statistics: |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83801
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Department of Geography, University of Idaho, 875 Perimeter Drive, MS 3021, Moscow, ID, United States
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Parker L.E.,Abatzoglou J.T.. Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,147(2018-01-02)
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