DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1504-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944561863
论文题名: Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5
作者: Oleson K.W. ; Anderson G.B. ; Jones B. ; McGinnis S.A. ; Sanderson B.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 377
结束页码: 392
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climatology
; Rural areas
; Avoided impacts
; Climate impacts
; Earth system model
; Grid cells
; Model ensembles
; Urban and rural
; Urban Heat Island Effects
; Wave characteristics
; Climate models
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; cold wave
; extreme event
; heat island
; heat transfer
; heat wave
; parameterization
; rural area
; urban area
; Houston
; Texas
; United States
英文摘要: Previous studies examining future changes in heat/cold waves using climate model ensembles have been limited to grid cell-average quantities. Here, we make use of an urban parameterization in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) that represents the urban heat island effect, which can exacerbate extreme heat but may ameliorate extreme cold in urban relative to rural areas. Heat/cold wave characteristics are derived for U.S. regions from a bias-corrected CESM 30-member ensemble for climate outcomes driven by the RCP8.5 forcing scenario and a 15-member ensemble driven by RCP4.5. Significant differences are found between urban and grid cell-average heat/cold wave characteristics. Most notably, urban heat waves for 1981–2005 are more intense than grid cell-average by 2.1 °C (southeast) to 4.6 °C (southwest), while cold waves are less intense. We assess the avoided climate impacts of urban heat/cold waves in 2061–2080 when following the lower forcing scenario. Urban heat wave days per year increase from 6 in 1981–2005 to up to 92 (southeast) in RCP8.5. Following RCP4.5 reduces heat wave days by about 50 %. Large avoided impacts are demonstrated for individual communities; e.g., the longest heat wave for Houston in RCP4.5 is 38 days while in RCP8.5 there is one heat wave per year that is longer than a month with some lasting the entire summer. Heat waves also start later in the season in RCP4.5 (earliest are in early May) than RCP8.5 (mid-April), compared to 1981–2005 (late May). In some communities, cold wave events decrease from 2 per year for 1981–2005 to one-in-five year events in RCP4.5 and one-in-ten year events in RCP8.5. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83805
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States; Department of Environmental & Radiological Health Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, New York, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Oleson K.W.,Anderson G.B.,Jones B.,et al. Avoided climate impacts of urban and rural heat and cold waves over the U.S. using large climate model ensembles for RCP8.5 and RCP4.5[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)