DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1775-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84984846547
论文题名: Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA
作者: Marsha A. ; Sain S.R. ; Heaton M.J. ; Monaghan A.J. ; Wilhelmi O.V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 471
结束页码: 485
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Population statistics
; Climate projection
; Degree of sensitivity
; Heat related mortality
; Lower emissions
; Population change
; Socio-economic change
; Statistical approach
; Urban environments
; Climate change
英文摘要: Extreme heat is a significant public health challenge in urban environments that disproportionally impacts vulnerable members of society. In this research, demographic, economic and climate projections are brought together with a statistical approach linking extreme heat and mortality in Houston, Texas. The sensitivity of heat-related non-accidental mortality to future changes of demographics, income and climate is explored. We compare climate change outcomes associated with two different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, which describe alternate future scenarios for greenhouse gas emissions and concentrations. For each RCP, we explore demographic and economic scenarios for two plausible Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Our findings suggest that non-accidental mortality in 2061–2080 may increase for all combinations of RCP and SSP scenarios compared to a historical reference period spanning 1991–2010. Notably, increased heat-related non-accidental mortality is associated with changes in the size and age of the population, but the degree of sensitivity is highly uncertain given the breadth of plausible socioeconomic scenarios. Beyond socioeconomic changes, climate change is also important. For each socioeconomic scenario, non-accidental mortality associated with the lower emissions RCP4.5 scenario is projected to be 50 % less than mortality projected under the higher emissions RCP8.5 scenario. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83807
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: University of Washington, P.O. Box 354322, Seattle, WA, United States; The Climate Corp, San Francisco, CA, United States; Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, United States; National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Marsha A.,Sain S.R.,Heaton M.J.,et al. Influences of climatic and population changes on heat-related mortality in Houston, Texas, USA[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)