DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1750-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84982784022
论文题名: Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model
作者: Bacmeister J.T. ; Reed K.A. ; Hannay C. ; Lawrence P. ; Bates S. ; Truesdale J.E. ; Rosenbloom N. ; Levy M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 547
结束页码: 560
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Climate change
; High-resolution
; Tropical cyclones
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate models
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Tropics
; Extreme precipitation events
; Global atmospheric models
; High resolution
; High resolution climate model
; Horizontal resolution
; Sea surface temperatures
; Tropical cyclone
; Tropical cyclone activity
; Climate change
英文摘要: This study examines how characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) that are explicitly resolved in a global atmospheric model with horizontal resolution of approximately 28 km are projected to change in a warmer climate using bias-corrected sea-surface temperatures (SSTs). The impact of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5 is explicitly considered and is compared with uncertainties arising from SST projections. We find a reduction in overall global TC activity as climate warms. This reduction is somewhat less pronounced under RCP4.5 than under RCP8.5. By contrast, the frequency of very intense TCs is projected to increase dramatically in a warmer climate, with most of the increase concentrated in the NW Pacific basin. Extremes of storm related precipitation are also projected to become more common. Reduction in the frequency of extreme precipitation events is possible through mitigation from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. In general more detailed basin-scale projections of future TC activity are subject to large uncertainties due to uncertainties in future SSTs. In most cases these uncertainties are larger than the effects of mitigating from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83814
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate and Global Dynamics Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO BOX 3000, Boulder, CO, United States; School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, NY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Bacmeister J.T.,Reed K.A.,Hannay C.,et al. Projected changes in tropical cyclone activity under future warming scenarios using a high-resolution climate model[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)