DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1656-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84963700023
论文题名: A comparison of U.S. precipitation extremes under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 with an application of pattern scaling
作者: Fix M.J. ; Cooley D. ; Sain S.R. ; Tebaldi C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 335
结束页码: 347
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Earth (planet)
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Rain
; Annual exceedance probabilities (AEP)
; Climate change scenarios
; Daily precipitations
; Extreme precipitation
; Generalized extreme value
; Global-mean temperature
; Initial condition ensembles
; Precipitation extremes
; Climate models
英文摘要: Precipitation extremes are expected to increase in a warming climate, which may have serious societal impacts. This study uses two initial condition ensembles conducted with the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to investigate potential changes in extreme precipitation under two climate change scenarios over the contiguous United States. We fit non-stationary generalized extreme value (GEV) models to annual maximum daily precipitation simulated from a 30-member ensemble under the RCP8.5 scenario and a 15-member ensemble under the RCP4.5 scenario. We then compare impacts using the 1 % annual exceedance probability (AEP) level, which is the amount of daily rainfall with only a 1 % chance of being exceeded in a given year. Under RCP8.5 between 2005 and 2080, the 1 % AEP level is projected to increase by 17 % on average across the U.S., and up to 36 % for some grid cells. Compared to RCP8.5 in the year 2080, RCP4.5 is projected to reduce the 1 % AEP level by 7 % on average, with reductions as large as 18 % for some grid cells. We also investigate a pattern scaling approach in which we produce predictive GEV distributions of annual precipitation maxima under RCP4.5 given only global mean temperatures for this scenario. We compare results from this less computationally intensive method to those obtained from our GEV model fitted directly to the CESM RCP4.5 output and find that pattern scaling produces reasonable projections. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83815
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Department of Statistics, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, United States; The Climate Corporation, San Francisco, CA, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Fix M.J.,Cooley D.,Sain S.R.,et al. A comparison of U.S. precipitation extremes under RCP8.5 and RCP4.5 with an application of pattern scaling[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)