DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1809-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84989189018
论文题名: Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments
作者: Alexeeff S.E. ; Nychka D. ; Sain S.R. ; Tebaldi C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 319
结束页码: 333
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Emulator
; Initial condition ensemble
; Internal variability
; Pattern scaling
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Anthropogenic climate changes
; Climate change scenarios
; Emulator
; Initial condition ensembles
; Internal variability
; Linear mixed-effects model
; Pattern scaling
; Temperature projection
; Climate change
英文摘要: There are many climate change scenarios that are of interest to explore by climate models, but computational power limits the total number of model runs. Pattern scaling is a useful approach to approximate mean changes in climate model projections, and we extend this methodology to build a climate model emulator that also accounts for variability of temperature projections at the seasonal scale. Using 30 runs from the NCAR/DOE CESM1 large initial condition ensemble for RCP8.5 from 2006 to 2080, we fit a pattern scaling model to grid-specific seasonal average temperature change. We then use this fitted model to emulate seasonal average temperature change for the RCP4.5 scenario based on its global average temperature trend. By using a linear mixed-effects model and carefully resampling the residuals from the RCP8.5 model, we emulate the variability of RCP4.5 and allow the variability to depend on global average temperature. Specifically, we emulate both the internal variability affecting the long-term trends across initial condition ensemble members, and the variability superimposed on the long-term trend within individual ensemble members. The 15 initial condition ensemble members available for RCP4.5 from the same climate model are then used to validate the emulator. We view this approach as a step forward in providing relevant climate information for avoided impacts studies, and more broadly for impact models, since we allow both forced changes and internal variability to play a role in determining future impact risks. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83820
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States; Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, PO Box 3000, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Alexeeff S.E.,Nychka D.,Sain S.R.,et al. Emulating mean patterns and variability of temperature across and within scenarios in anthropogenic climate change experiments[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)