DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1513-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84944562668
论文题名: Estimating impacts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using an index of damage potential
作者: Done J.M. ; PaiMazumder D. ; Towler E. ; Kishtawal C.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 561
结束页码: 573
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric temperature
; Climate change
; Damage detection
; Hurricanes
; Oceanography
; Storms
; Surface waters
; Climate simulation
; Climate variables
; Damage Potential
; Internal climate variability
; Internal variability
; Model initial conditions
; Sea surface temperature (SST)
; Tropical cyclone
; Climate models
英文摘要: An index of North Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) damage potential due to winds and coastal surge is developed using seasonal climate variables of relative sea surface temperature and steering flow. These climate variables are proxies for the key damaging TC parameters of intensity, size, and forward speed that constitute an existing cyclone damage potential index. This climate-based approach has the advantage of sidestepping the need for data on individual TCs and explains 48 % of the variance in historical cyclone damage potential. The merit of the cyclone damage potential is in assessments relative to past events or past periods, and may be translated to actual damage using relationships between the damage potential index and specific exposure and vulnerability characteristics. Spread in the change in damage potential over the 21st century among climate simulations under representative concentration pathways 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5 is found to be less than the spread due to internal variability, as assessed using a climate model initial condition large ensemble. This study highlights the importance of accounting for internal climate variability in future climate impact assessments. © 2015, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83821
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Space Application Center, Indian Space Research Organization, Ahmedabad, India
Recommended Citation:
Done J.M.,PaiMazumder D.,Towler E.,et al. Estimating impacts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones using an index of damage potential[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)