globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1679-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84964553177
论文题名:
The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti
作者: Monaghan A.J.; Sampson K.M.; Steinhoff D.F.; Ernst K.C.; Ebi K.L.; Jones B.; Hayden M.H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 487
结束页码: 500
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Population dynamics ; Population statistics ; Viruses ; Air temperature ; Earth system model ; Global population ; Lower emissions ; Occurrence pattern ; Population change ; Population growth ; Potential impacts ; Climate change ; Aedes aegypti
英文摘要: The mosquito Aedes (Ae). aegypti transmits the viruses that cause dengue, chikungunya, Zika and yellow fever. We investigate how choosing alternate emissions and/or socioeconomic pathways may modulate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti. Occurrence patterns for Ae. aegypti for 2061–2080 are mapped globally using empirically downscaled air temperature and precipitation projections from the Community Earth System Model, for the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Population growth is quantified using gridded global population projections consistent with two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), SSP3 and SSP5. Change scenarios are compared to a 1950–2000 reference period. A global land area of 56.9 M km2 is climatically suitable for Ae. aegypti during the reference period, and is projected to increase by 8 % (RCP4.5) to 13 % (RCP8.5) by 2061–2080. The annual average number of people exposed globally to Ae. aegypti for the reference period is 3794 M, a value projected to statistically significantly increase by 298–460 M (8–12 %) by 2061–2080 if only climate change is considered, and by 4805–5084 M (127–134 %) for SSP3 and 2232–2483 M (59–65 %) for SSP5 considering both climate and population change (lower and upper values of each range represent RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 respectively). Thus, taking the lower-emissions RCP4.5 pathway instead of RCP8.5 may mitigate future human exposure to Ae. aegypti globally, but the effect of population growth on exposure will likely be larger. Regionally, Australia, Europe and North America are projected to have the largest percentage increases in human exposure to Ae. aegypti considering only climate change. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83824
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; College of Public Health, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ, United States; School of Public Health, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States; CUNY Institute for Demographic Research, City University of New York, New York, NY, United States

Recommended Citation:
Monaghan A.J.,Sampson K.M.,Steinhoff D.F.,et al. The potential impacts of 21st century climatic and population changes on human exposure to the virus vector mosquito Aedes aegypti[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)
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