DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1565-1
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84948989373
论文题名: The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes
作者: Xu Y. ; Lamarque J.-F. ; Sanderson B.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 393
结束页码: 406
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Aerosols
; Atmospheric aerosols
; Climate models
; Gas emissions
; Atmospheric circulation
; Global climate model
; Global-mean temperature
; Greenhouse gas (GHG)
; Northern hemisphere
; Relative sensitivity
; Thermodynamic changes
; Tropical land areas
; Greenhouse gases
英文摘要: Global climate models project a large increase in the frequency and intensity of heat extremes (HEs) during the 21st century under the Representative Pathway Concentration (RCP8.5) scenario. To assess the relative sensitivity of future HEs to the level of greenhouse gas (GHG) increases and aerosol emission decreases, we contrast Community Earth System Model (CESM)’s Large Ensemble projection under RCP8.5 with two additional ensembles: one keeping aerosol emissions at 2005 levels (but allowing all other forcings to progress as in RCP8.5) and the other using the RCP4.5 with lower GHG levels. By the late 21st century (2060–2080), the 3 °C warmer-than-present-day climate simulated under RCP8.5 could be 0.6 °C cooler (0.9 °C over land) if the aerosol emissions in RCP8.5 were not reduced, compared with a 1.2 °C cooling due to GHG mitigation (switching from RCP8.5 to RCP4.5). Aerosol induced cooling and associated HE reductions are relatively stronger in the Northern Hemisphere (NH), as opposed to GHG mitigation induced cooling. When normalized by the global mean temperature change in these two cases, aerosols have a greater effect than GHGs on all HE statistics over NH extra-tropical land areas. Aerosols are more capable of changing HE duration than GHGs in the tropics, explained by stronger dynamical changes in atmospheric circulation, despite weaker thermodynamic changes. Our results highlight the importance of aerosol scenario assumptions in projecting future HEs at regional scales. © 2015, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83826
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, CO, United States
Recommended Citation:
Xu Y.,Lamarque J.-F.,Sanderson B.M.. The importance of aerosol scenarios in projections of future heat extremes[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-03-04)