DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1989-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019890848
论文题名: Vulnerability of crops and croplands in the US Northern Plains to predicted climate change
作者: Wienhold B.J. ; Vigil M.F. ; Hendrickson J.R. ; Derner J.D.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2018
卷: 146, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 219
结束页码: 230
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agricultural wastes
; Agriculture
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Decision support systems
; Ecology
; Economics
; Ecosystems
; Landforms
; Oils and fats
; Productivity
; Soils
; Adaptation strategies
; Agricultural productivity
; Crop production systems
; Extreme temperature events
; Livestock production
; Northern great plains
; Socio-economic change
; Water use efficiency
; Water resources
; adaptive management
; agricultural land
; biofuel
; biomass
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; cover crop
; crop plant
; crop production
; crop residue
; crop yield
; ecosystem service
; extreme event
; growing season
; livestock farming
; management practice
; mixed farming
; nutrient use efficiency
; planning process
; precipitation (climatology)
; resource use
; strategic approach
; vulnerability
; water use efficiency
; Animalia
; Hexapoda
英文摘要: The states of Colorado, Montana, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming comprise the Northern Great Plains region of the USA. The soil and water resources contained in this region have historically supported highly diverse and productive agriculture enterprises that provide a significant proportion of the food, feed, and oilseed for the nation. The region also provides ecological services that influence air, water, and soil quality along with biological diversity. Combined with livestock production and a biofuel industry, crop production forms an integrated system that can offer producers flexibility in management decisions. Projected climatic changes for this region include increasing atmospheric CO2, a longer, warmer growing season, and increased precipitation, likely received in more frequent extreme events. These changes will impact soil and water resources in the region and create opportunities and challenges for land managers. The objectives of this paper are to describe anticipated impacts of projected mid-(2050) and late-(2085) climatic changes on crop production systems in the Northern Great Plains and provide adaptation strategies that should be developed to take advantage of positive and mitigate negative changes. Projected climatic changes will influence agricultural productivity directly as well as indirectly due to changes in weed pressure, insect populations, and diseases. A warmer, longer growing season will change the crops and distribution of those crops grown within the region. An increase in the number of extreme temperature events (high daytime highs or nighttime lows) will decrease crop yields due to increased plant stress during critical pollination and grain fill periods. Adaptation strategies to reduce vulnerability of soil and water resources to projected climatic changes include increasing cropping intensity, reducing tillage intensity, and use of cover crops to provide surface cover to reduce erosion potential and improve nutrient and water use efficiency. Increased use of perennial forages, crop residue, and failed crops in integrated crop-livestock systems will add biological diversity and provide options for converting vegetation biomass into animal protein. Socio-economic changes will need to be incorporated into adaptation strategies planning to insure that sustaining ecosystem services and meeting desired production and conservation goals is accomplished. Education and extension services will be needed to transfer adaptive knowledge in a timely manner to producers in the field. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht (outside the USA). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83846
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: USDA-ARS, 251 Filley Hall/Food Ind. Complex, East Campus, University of Nebraska—Lincoln, Lincoln, NE, United States; USDA-ARS, 40335 County Road GG, Akron, CO, United States; USDA-ARS, Box 459, Mandan, ND, United States; USDA-ARS, 8408 Hildreth Road, Cheyenne, WY, United States
Recommended Citation:
Wienhold B.J.,Vigil M.F.,Hendrickson J.R.,et al. Vulnerability of crops and croplands in the US Northern Plains to predicted climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2018-01-01,146(2018-01-02)