DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2104-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85034647241
论文题名: Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding
作者: Toimil A. ; Losada I.J. ; Díaz-Simal P. ; Izaguirre C. ; Camus P.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 145, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 431
结束页码: 444
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Floods
; Value engineering
; Water levels
; Adaptation to climate changes
; Bayesian techniques
; Climate information
; Coastal defense
; Coastal flooding
; Reanalysis database
; Risk consequences
; Stringent requirement
; Climate change
; assessment method
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; coastal zone
; expert system
; flooding
; risk assessment
; socioeconomic impact
; vulnerability
; water level
; Asturias
; Spain
英文摘要: In the context of growing concern about the threat of flooding posed by climate change in coastal areas, the Spanish plan for coastal adaptation to climate change gave rise to stringent requirements on risk consequence estimates at the regional scale O (100 km). Within this framework, we propose a methodology that combines high space-time resolution climate information (reanalysis databases and projections), local data on exposure that accounts for the most relevant sectors, site-specific vulnerability functions, and flood risk consequence valuation, gridded at 5 m. This approach involves efficient multiple-forcing flood modeling, in which the connection between climate change and potential inundation is primarily established through the definition of a total water level index. This research tackles challenging issues, including the importance of incorporating the effects of existing coastal defenses and local wave effects in port areas, dealing with data at different spatial scales and sectors in an integrated way, and the impact of discounting. The results provide insights into the possible consequences of inaction for a range of future scenarios based on changes in climate and socio-economics over the most relevant sectors. With the goal of prioritizing adaptive action and the efficient assignment of funds, we propose a weight-based integration of the sectoral value-at-risk through the application of Bayesian techniques and expert judgment. The methodology described here was applied to a pilot case study on the coast of Asturias in northern Spain. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83850
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Parque Científico y Tecnológico de Cantabria, c/ Isabel Torres n°15, Santander, Cantabria, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Toimil A.,Losada I.J.,Díaz-Simal P.,et al. Multi-sectoral, high-resolution assessment of climate change consequences of coastal flooding[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,145(2018-03-04)