globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2108-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85035118198
论文题名:
Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA
作者: Elias E.; Marklein A.; Abatzoglou J.T.; Dialesandro J.; Brown J.; Steele C.; Rango A.; Steenwerth K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 15
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Cotton ; Cultivation ; Thermal stress ; Yield stress ; Cotton cultivation ; Daily temperatures ; Increased temperature ; Management strategies ; Multiple pathways ; Temperature changes ; Temperature impact ; Temperature regimes ; Crops
英文摘要: Increased temperatures in the Southwestern USA will impact future crop production via multiple pathways. We used four methods to provide an illustrative analysis of midcentury temperature impacts to eight field crops. By midcentury, cropland area thermally suitable for maize cultivation is projected to decrease, while area suitable for cotton cultivation expands northward and nearly doubles in extent. The increase in area exposed to daily temperatures > 35 °C was highest for oat and maize. Estimates of yield reduction from heat stress for both maize and cotton indicate that historically, SW heat stress reduced cotton yield by 26% and maize yield by 18% compared to potential yield. By midcentury, we predict yield reduction from heat stress will reduce cotton and maize yields by 37 and 27%, respectively, compared to potential yield. Our results contradict the notion that the warmest counties cultivating field crops will be the most impacted. Rather, future temperature, total crop area and crop sensitivity contribute to more complex county-level impacts. Identification of representative target environments under future temperature regimes can inform development of farm-based networks to evaluate new crop germplasm with increased heat tolerance and viable adaptation and management strategies to respond effectively to future temperatures. © 2017 The Author(s)
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83869
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Jornada Experimental Range, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Las Cruces, Mexico; Earth and Environmental Science Area, Lawrence Berkeley Laboratories, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States; University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States; University of California at Davis, Davis, CA, United States; Natural Resource Conservation Service, Washington, DC, United States; New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, Mexico; Crops Pathology and Genetics Research Service, USDA-Agricultural Research Service, Davis, CA, United States

Recommended Citation:
Elias E.,Marklein A.,Abatzoglou J.T.,et al. Vulnerability of field crops to midcentury temperature changes and yield effects in the Southwestern USA[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Elias E.]'s Articles
[Marklein A.]'s Articles
[Abatzoglou J.T.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Elias E.]'s Articles
[Marklein A.]'s Articles
[Abatzoglou J.T.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Elias E.]‘s Articles
[Marklein A.]‘s Articles
[Abatzoglou J.T.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.