DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063091
论文题名: Contributions of atmospheric circulation variability and data coverage bias to the warming hiatus
作者: Saffioti C. ; Fischer E.M. ; Knutti R.
刊名: Geophysical Research Letters
ISSN: 0094-8773
EISSN: 1944-8504
出版年: 2015
卷: 42, 期: 7 起始页码: 2385
结束页码: 2391
语种: 英语
英文关键词: atmospheric circulation
; coverage bias
; dynamical adjustment
; internal climate variability
; natural climate variability
; warming hiatus
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climatology
; Meteorology
; Atmospheric circulation
; Coverage bias
; Dynamical adjustment
; Internal climate variability
; Natural climate variabilities
; Warming hiatus
; Climate models
; atmospheric circulation
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; estimation method
; extratropical environment
; hiatus
; Northern Hemisphere
英文摘要: The warming hiatus shows a strong seasonal and geographical asymmetry, with cooling in the Northern Hemisphere winter, especially over land, and warming elsewhere and in the other seasons. We show that the characteristics of the Northern Hemisphere winter cooling in 1998-2012 can mostly be explained by missing observations and by internal variability in the atmospheric circulation of the Northern Hemisphere extratropics. Estimates of the annual and seasonal temperature trends in 1998-2012 obtained by considering the concurrent effects of unforced natural variability and of coverage bias are much closer to the corresponding long-term trends. Reanalyses suggest that the coverage bias was exceptionally pronounced during recent years and that an area of strong warming was missed due to the incomplete observational coverage. Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate models indicate that trends in atmospheric circulation during the hiatus period did not occur as a response to anthropogenic forcing. ©2015. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved. URL: https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-84928701941&doi=10.1002%2f2015GL063091&partnerID=40&md5=4badfd8f35ed62ea6a57207a869c5cfb
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/8389
Appears in Collections: 科学计划与规划 气候变化与战略
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作者单位: Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Recommended Citation:
Saffioti C.,Fischer E.M.,Knutti R.. Contributions of atmospheric circulation variability and data coverage bias to the warming hiatus[J]. Geophysical Research Letters,2015-01-01,42(7).