DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2062-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029006699
论文题名: A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans
作者: Tariq A. ; Lempert R.J. ; Riverson J. ; Schwartz M. ; Berg N.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 4 起始页码: 625
结束页码: 639
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Decision making
; Land use
; Precipitation (meteorology)
; Quality management
; Soil conservation
; Uncertainty analysis
; Water conservation
; Water management
; Water quality
; Water supply
; Deep uncertainties
; Extreme precipitation events
; Probabilistic climate projections
; Regulatory process
; TMDl implementation
; Total maximum daily load
; Water quality standard
; Watershed management plans
; Climate change
; adaptive management
; climate change
; compliance
; decision making
; environmental stress
; implementation process
; regulatory approach
; water quality
; water supply
; California
; Los Angeles River
; United States
英文摘要: Climate change can significantly affect water quality, in addition contributing non-stationarity and deep uncertainty that complicates water quality management. But most of the total maximum daily load (TMDL) implementation plans crafted to meet water quality standards in the USA are developed assuming stationary climate and at best a small number of land use futures, although neither assumption seems reliably justified. To address this challenge, this study employs robust decision making (RDM) methods, commonly used to help develop water supply plans, to stress test the proposed Enhanced Watershed Management Plan (EWMP), a TMDL implementation plan, for the Tujunga Wash, the largest subwatershed of the Los Angeles River, over a wide range of climate and land use futures. We find that climate change could significantly reduce the ability of the Tujunga EWMP to meet water quality goals; however, meeting the city’s goals for increasing permeable land cover offsets the risk of non-compliance in the face of climate change uncertainties. This study also introduces innovations in RDM analyses, including: treatment of the deeply uncertain incidence of extreme precipitation events, an explicit link between RDM scenario discovery methods and the specification of signposts for adaptive policy pathways, and the use of (imprecise) probabilistic climate projections to inform the choice among robust adaptive policy pathways. The paper also contributes to a larger debate over how to address climate and other uncertainties in regulatory processes involving water quality. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83911
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: RAND, Santa Monica, CA, United States; Paradigm, Fairfax, VA, United States; UCLA, Los Angeles, CA, United States
Recommended Citation:
Tariq A.,Lempert R.J.,Riverson J.,et al. A climate stress test of Los Angeles’ water quality plans[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(4)