DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2068-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85029541305
论文题名: Carbon dioxide fertilization offsets negative impacts of climate change on Arabica coffee yield in Brazil
作者: Verhage F.Y.F. ; Anten N.P.R. ; Sentelhas P.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 4 起始页码: 671
结束页码: 685
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Calibration
; Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate models
; Cultivation
; Irrigation
; Air temperature
; Beneficial effects
; Climate change impact
; Current production
; Global circulation model
; Mean absolute percentage error
; Modeling project
; Simulation model
; Climate change
; agricultural modeling
; carbon dioxide
; carbon dioxide enrichment
; climate change
; climate conditions
; climate effect
; coffee
; crop production
; crop yield
; cultivation
; fertilizer application
; frost
; irrigation
; temperature effect
; water stress
; yield response
; Brazil
; Coffea arabica
英文摘要: Arabica coffee production provides a livelihood to millions of people worldwide. Climate change impact studies consistently project a drastic decrease of Arabica yields in current production regions by 2050. However, none of these studies incorporated the beneficial effects that elevated CO2 concentrations are found to have on Arabica coffee yields, the so-called CO2 fertilization effect. To assess the impacts of climate change and elevated CO2 concentrations on the cultivation of Arabica coffee in Brazil, a coffee yield simulation model was extended with a CO2 fertilization and irrigation factor. The model was calibrated and validated with yield data from 1989 to 2013 of 42 municipalities in Brazil and found to perform satisfactorily in both the calibration (R2 = 0.91, d = 0.96, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) = 8.58%) and validation phases (R2 = 0.96, d = 0.95, MAPE = 11.16%). The model was run for the 42 municipalities from 1980 to 2010 with interpolated climate data and from 2040 to 2070 with climate data projected by five global circulation models according to the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 scenario. The model projects that yield losses due to high air temperatures and water deficit will increase, while losses due to frost will decrease. Nevertheless, extra losses are offset by the CO2 fertilization effect, resulting in a small net increase of the average Brazilian Arabica coffee yield of 0.8% to 1.48 t ha−1 in 2040–2070, assuming growing locations and irrigation remain unchanged. Simulations further indicate that future yields can reach up to 1.81 t ha−1 provided that irrigation use is expanded. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83912
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands; Department of Biosystems Engineering, ESALQ, University of São Paulo, Piracicaba, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Verhage F.Y.F.,Anten N.P.R.,Sentelhas P.C.. Carbon dioxide fertilization offsets negative impacts of climate change on Arabica coffee yield in Brazil[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(4)