globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2011-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028976740
论文题名:
Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes
作者: Kerr A.; Dialesandro J.; Steenwerth K.; Lopez-Brody N.; Elias E.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
起始页码: 1
结束页码: 18
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Economic research ; Global temperatures ; Maximum temperature ; San Joaquin Valley ; Sensitivity indices ; Spatial assessment ; Temperature changes ; Temperature sensitivity ; Crops
英文摘要: Increasing global temperatures are likely to have major impacts on agriculture, but the effects will vary by crop and location. This paper describes the temperature sensitivity and exposure of selected specialty crops in California. We used literature synthesis to create several sensitivity indices (from 1 to 4) to changes in winter minimum and summer maximum temperature for the top 14 specialty crops. To estimate exposure, we used seasonal period change analysis of mid-century minimum and maximum temperature changes downscaled to county level from CMIP5 models. We described crop vulnerability on a county basis as (crop sensitivity index × county climate exposure × area of crop in county); individual crop vulnerabilities were combined to create an aggregate index of specialty crop vulnerability by county. We also conducted analyses scaled by crop value rather than area, and normalized to total specialty crop area in each county. Our analyses yielded a spatial assessment highlighting seasons and counties of highest vulnerability. Winter and summer vulnerability are correlated, but not highly so. High-producing counties (e.g., Fresno County in the San Joaquin Valley) are the most vulnerable in absolute terms, while northern Sacramento Valley counties are the most vulnerable in relative terms, due to their reliance on heat-sensitive perennial crops. Our results illustrate the importance of examining crop vulnerability from different angles. More physiological and economic research is needed to build a comprehensive picture of specialty crop vulnerability to climate change. © 2017 The Author(s)
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83916
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: USDA California Climate Hub, Davis, CA, United States; John Muir Institute of the Environment, University of California, Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA, United States; Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources, University of California, Davis, CA, United States; USDA Southwest Climate Hub, Las Cruces, NM, United States; USDA-ARS Crops Pathology and Genetics Research Unit, Davis, CA, United States; New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, United States; USDA-ARS Range Management Research Unit, Las Cruces, NM, United States

Recommended Citation:
Kerr A.,Dialesandro J.,Steenwerth K.,et al. Vulnerability of California specialty crops to projected mid-century temperature changes[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01
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