DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2049-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85028688611
论文题名: Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?
作者: Stott P.A. ; Karoly D.J. ; Zwiers F.W.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 2 起始页码: 143
结束页码: 150
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Statistical tests
; Bayesian paradigm
; Estimation problem
; Extreme events
; Frequentist
; Heatwaves
; Human influences
; Hypothesis testing
; Null hypothesis
; Climate change
; Bayesian analysis
; climate change
; extreme event
; hypothesis testing
; nature-society relations
; paradigm shift
英文摘要: The science of event attribution meets a mounting demand for reliable and timely information about the links between climate change and individual extreme events. Studies have estimated the contribution of human-induced climate change to the magnitude of an event as well as its likelihood, and many types of event have been investigated including heatwaves, floods, and droughts. Despite this progress, such approaches have been criticised for being unreliable and for being overly conservative. We argue that such criticisms are misplaced. Rather, a false dichotomy has arisen between “conventional” approaches and new alternative framings. We have three points to make about the choice of statistical paradigm for event attribution studies. First, different approaches to event attribution may choose to occupy different places on the conditioning spectrum. Providing this choice of conditioning is communicated clearly, the value of such choices depends ultimately on their utility to the user concerned. Second, event attribution is an estimation problem for which either frequentist or Bayesian paradigms can be used. Third, for hypothesis testing, the choice of null hypothesis is context specific. Thus, the null hypothesis of human influence is not inherently a preferable alternative to the usual null hypothesis of no human influence. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83917
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, North Park Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Fitzroy Road, Exeter, United Kingdom; Environmental Change Institute, Oxford Martin School, Oxford, United Kingdom; School of Earth Sciences and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia; Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, University House, 1700, Stn CSC, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Stott P.A.,Karoly D.J.,Zwiers F.W.. Is the choice of statistical paradigm critical in extreme event attribution studies?[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(2)