DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2033-x
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85027107043
论文题名: Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios
作者: Mu J.E. ; Sleeter B.M. ; Abatzoglou J.T. ; Antle J.M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 2 起始页码: 329
结束页码: 345
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Agriculture
; Climate models
; Crops
; Cultivation
; Economic analysis
; Economics
; Environmental regulations
; Land use
; Agricultural land use
; Crop production
; Econometric model
; Estimation results
; Land-use change
; Livestock production
; Moisture variability
; Project effects
; Climate change
; agricultural land
; climate effect
; crop production
; econometrics
; environmental impact assessment
; land use change
; livestock farming
; socioeconomic conditions
; twenty first century
; United States
英文摘要: We examine the impacts of climate on net returns from crop and livestock production and the resulting impact on land-use change across the contiguous USA. We first estimate an econometric model to project effects of weather fluctuations on crop and livestock net returns and then use a semi-reduced form land-use share model to study agricultural land-use changes under future climate and socio-economic scenarios. Estimation results show that crop net returns are more sensitive to thermal and less sensitive to moisture variability than livestock net returns; other agricultural land uses substitute cropland use when 30-year averaged degree-days or precipitation are not beneficial for crop production. Under future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we project that crop and livestock net returns are both increasing, but with crop net returns increasing at a higher rate; cropland increases with declines of marginal and pastureland by the end of the twenty-first century. Projections also show that impacts of future climate on agricultural land uses are substantially different and a larger variation of land-use change is evident when socio-economic scenarios are incorporated into the climate impact analysis. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83934
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, United States; Western Geographic Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, CA, United States; Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID, United States; Department of Applied Economics, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, United States
Recommended Citation:
Mu J.E.,Sleeter B.M.,Abatzoglou J.T.,et al. Climate impacts on agricultural land use in the USA: the role of socio-economic scenarios[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(2)