DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2030-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85023768726
论文题名: Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions
作者: Kirchmeier-Young M.C. ; Zwiers F.W. ; Gillett N.P. ; Cannon A.J.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 144, 期: 2 起始页码: 365
结束页码: 379
语种: 英语
英文关键词: Event attribution
; Extremes
; Fire weather
Scopus关键词: Deforestation
; Risk perception
; Canadian forests
; Combined effect
; Event attribution
; Extremes
; Fire event
; Fire risks
; Fire weather
; Future climate projections
; Fires
; anthropogenic effect
; climate change
; climate prediction
; environmental risk
; extreme event
; fire
; risk assessment
; Alberta
; Canada
; Fort McMurray
英文摘要: Canada is expected to see an increase in fire risk under future climate projections. Large fires, such as that near Fort McMurray, Alberta in 2016, can be devastating to the communities affected. Understanding the role of human emissions in the occurrence of such extreme fire events can lend insight into how these events might change in the future. An event attribution framework is used to quantify the influence of anthropogenic forcings on extreme fire risk in the current climate of a western Canada region. Fourteen metrics from the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System are used to define the extreme fire seasons. For the majority of these metrics and during the current decade, the combined effect of anthropogenic and natural forcing is estimated to have made extreme fire risk events in the region 1.5 to 6 times as likely compared to a climate that would have been with natural forcings alone. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83940
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Pacific Climate Impacts Consortium, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada; Climate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Kirchmeier-Young M.C.,Zwiers F.W.,Gillett N.P.,et al. Attributing extreme fire risk in Western Canada to human emissions[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,144(2)