DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2007-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85021705402
论文题名: Assessing impacts and community preparedness to cyclones: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach
作者: Singh P.K. ; Chudasama H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 337
结束页码: 354
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Cognitive systems
; Disaster prevention
; Disasters
; Hyperbolic functions
; Mapping
; Risk assessment
; Storms
; Climatic events
; Developing nations
; Disaster preparedness
; Economic impacts
; FCM simulations
; Fuzzy cognitive map
; Fuzzy cognitive mappings
; Transformation functions
; Economic and social effects
; climate change
; cyclone
; developing world
; disaster management
; economic impact
; extreme event
; fuzzy mathematics
; local participation
; resilience
; risk assessment
; vulnerability
; Bay of Bengal
; Ganjam
; India
; Indian Ocean
; Odisha
; Puri
英文摘要: Exposure to heightened intensity and frequency of extreme climatic events coupled with higher vulnerability of population has pushed up the disaster risk graph in developing nations. The area under study, India’s eastern coast, is particularly susceptible to cyclones originating in the Bay of Bengal. This paper is aimed at identifying perceptions of impacts and preparedness levels of coastal and inland fishermen, the inhabitants of the Ganjam and Puri districts in the eastern coast of India with the aid of fuzzy cognitive maps. Based on communities’ perceptions, we have attempted to capture both the economic impacts (losses and damages) wreaked by cyclones as well as the ecological and social impacts in a bid to unearth options for policy makers and planners to be used for bolstering disaster preparedness. The paper also aims at evaluating the effectiveness of current preparedness measures in the context of climate change by deploying various fuzzy cognitive mapping simulation-based preparedness pathways. On the methodological front, our findings confirm that FCM simulations developed through modified activation rule with a hyperbolic transformation function give better results compared to other methods. The findings reveal that none of the preparedness pathways with current preparedness measures is adequate in terms of providing resilience against cyclonic risks. Hence, in order to increase communities’ resilience against cyclones, there is a need for new sets of impact-specific preparedness measures. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media B.V. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83952
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Institute of Rural Management Anand, Anand, India
Recommended Citation:
Singh P.K.,Chudasama H.. Assessing impacts and community preparedness to cyclones: a fuzzy cognitive mapping approach[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)