globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-2001-5
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020693554
论文题名:
Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities
作者: Abiodun B.J.; Adegoke J.; Abatan A.A.; Ibe C.A.; Egbebiyi T.S.; Engelbrecht F.; Pinto I.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 399
结束页码: 413
语种: 英语
英文关键词: African coastal cities ; Climate change ; Extreme precipitation ; Regional climate models
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Precipitation (meteorology) ; Uncertainty analysis ; Coastal cities ; Daily precipitations ; Extreme precipitation ; Extreme precipitation events ; Future climate scenarios ; Multi-Model Simulations ; Observation uncertainties ; Regional climate models ; Climate change ; climate change ; climate modeling ; climate prediction ; coastal zone ; data set ; precipitation (climatology) ; regional climate ; satellite data ; vulnerability ; Cape Town ; Egypt ; Lagos [Nigeria] ; Maputo [Mozambique] ; Mozambique ; Nigeria ; Port Said [Egypt] ; South Africa ; Western Cape
英文摘要: This study examines the impacts of climate change on characteristics of extreme precipitation events over four African coastal cities (Cape Town, Maputo, Lagos and Port Said) under two future climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Fourteen indices were used to characterise extreme precipitation and 16 multi-model simulation datasets from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) were analysed. The capability of the models to reproduce past characteristics of extreme precipitation over the cities was evaluated against four satellite datasets after quantifying the observation uncertainties over the cities. The models give realistic simulation of extreme precipitation characteristics over the cities, and in most cases, the magnitudes of the simulation biases are within the observation uncertainties. For both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, the models project a decrease in wet days and an increase in dry spells over the four cities in the future. More intense daily precipitation is projected over Maputo, Lagos and Port Said. The intensity and frequency of extreme precipitation events are projected to increase over Lagos, but decrease over the other cities. A decrease in annual precipitation is projected over Cape Town, Maputo and Port Said, whilst an increase is projected over Lagos, where the water surplus from the more extreme precipitation events exceeds the deficit from the less wet days. A decrease in the number of widespread extreme events is indicated over all the cities. Wet-day percentile and all-day percentile methods signal opposite future changes in the extreme precipitation thresholds over the cities (except over Lagos). The results of this study may have application in managing the vulnerabilities of these coastal cities to extreme precipitation events under climate change. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83953
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Climate System Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa; Laboratory for Climate Analysis and Modelling, Department of Geosciences, University of Missouri, Kansas City, MO, United States; Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences, Iowa State University, Ames, IA, United States; Department of Meteorology and Climate Science, Federal University of Technology, Akure, Nigeria; Institute for Natural Resources Environment and Sustainable Development, University of Port Harcourt, Port Harcourt, Nigeria; Climate Studies, Modelling and Environmental Health, Council for Scientific and Industrial Research Natural Resources and the Environment, Pretoria, South Africa; Unit for Environmental Sciences and Management, North-West University, Potchefstroom, South Africa

Recommended Citation:
Abiodun B.J.,Adegoke J.,Abatan A.A.,et al. Potential impacts of climate change on extreme precipitation over four African coastal cities[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)
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