| DOI: | 10.1007/s10584-017-2003-3
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| Scopus记录号: | 2-s2.0-85021096405
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| 论文题名: | How accurate are energy intensity projections? |
| 作者: | Stern D.I.
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| 刊名: | Climatic Change
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| ISSN: | 0165-0009
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| EISSN: | 1573-1480
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| 出版年: | 2017
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| 卷: | 143, 期:2018-03-04 | | 起始页码: | 537
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| 结束页码: | 545
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| 语种: | 英语
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| 英文关键词: | Business as usual
; Integrated assessment models
; Projections
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| Scopus关键词: | Economic analysis
; Energy efficiency
; Business-as-usual
; Economic growths
; Energy efficiency policies
; Energy intensity
; Integrated assessment models
; International energy agency
; Projections
; Rebound effect
; Economics
; business development
; economic growth
; energy efficiency
; energy planning
; environmental modeling
; integrated approach
; numerical model
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| 英文摘要: | Recent projections of energy intensity predict a more rapid decline in intensity than has occurred in the recent past. To assess how well such projections have performed in the past, I assess the accuracy of the business as usual energy intensity projections embedded in the annual World Energy Outlook (WEO) produced by the International Energy Agency since 1994. Changes in energy intensity depend on economic growth, and historical errors in projecting energy intensity can partly be explained by errors in projecting the rate of economic growth. However, recent projections of the elasticity of energy intensity with respect to economic growth probably overstate the likely future reduction in energy intensity even if economic growth is projected accurately. This could be because energy efficiency policies are not implemented as effectively as expected or because the economy-wide rebound effect is larger than modeling assumes. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. |
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| 资源类型: | 期刊论文
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| 标识符: | http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83956
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| Appears in Collections: | 气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: | Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 132 Lennox Crossing, Acton, Australia
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| Recommended Citation: | |
Stern D.I.. How accurate are energy intensity projections?[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)
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