DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1995-z
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020402895
论文题名: Potential impact of climate change on the risk of windthrow in eastern Canada’s forests
作者: Saad C. ; Boulanger Y. ; Beaudet M. ; Gachon P. ; Ruel J.-C. ; Gauthier S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 487
结束页码: 501
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Forestry
; Risk assessment
; Risks
; Soils
; Speed
; Uncertainty analysis
; Wind
; Climate change projections
; Ensemble simulation
; Global climate model
; Mechanistic modeling
; Optimum combination
; Regional climate modeling (RCM)
; Regional differences
; Wind speed distribution
; Climate change
; climate effect
; climate modeling
; coniferous tree
; forest ecosystem
; frost
; global climate
; numerical model
; regional climate
; risk assessment
; soil temperature
; wind velocity
; windthrow
; Canada
; Abies balsamea
英文摘要: Climate change is likely to affect windthrow risks at northern latitudes by potentially changing high wind probabilities and soil frost duration. Here, we evaluated the effect of climate change on windthrow risk in eastern Canada’s balsam fir (Abies balsamea [L.] Mill.) forests using a methodology that accounted for changes in both wind speed and soil frost duration. We used wind speed and soil temperature projections at the regional scale from the CRCM5 regional climate model (RCM) driven by the CanESM2 global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5, RCP8.5), for a baseline (1976–2005) and two future periods (2041–2070, 2071–2100). A hybrid mechanistic model (ForestGALES) that considers species resistance to uprooting and wind speed distribution was used to calculate windthrow risk. An increased risk of windthrow (3 to 30%) was predicted for the future mainly due to an increased duration of unfrozen soil conditions (by up to 2 to 3 months by the end of the twenty-first century under RCP8.5). In contrast, wind speed did not vary markedly with a changing climate. Strong regional variations in wind speeds translated into regional differences in windthrow risk, with the easternmost region (Atlantic provinces) having the strongest winds and the highest windthrow risk. Because of the inherent uncertainties associated with climate change projections, especially regarding wind climate, further research is required to assess windthrow risk from the optimum combination of RCM/GCM ensemble simulations. © 2017, Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83968
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Centre pour l’étude et la simulation du climat à l’échelle régionale (ESCER), Université du Québec à Montréal, Montréal, QC, Canada; Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forest Service, Laurentian Forestry Centre, Québec, QC, Canada; Département des sciences du bois et de la forêt, Université Laval, Québec, QC, Canada
Recommended Citation:
Saad C.,Boulanger Y.,Beaudet M.,et al. Potential impact of climate change on the risk of windthrow in eastern Canada’s forests[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-03-04)