DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1986-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019197222
论文题名: Simulation model of the growth of sweet orange (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) cv. Natal in response to climate change
作者: Pereira F.F.S. ; Sánchez-Román R.M. ; Orellana González A.M.G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 101
结束页码: 113
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Atmospheric chemistry
; Atmospheric temperature
; Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Citrus fruits
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Efficiency
; Forestry
; Irrigation
; Plants (botany)
; Soil moisture
; Water resources
; Atmospheric carbon dioxide
; Biomass productions
; Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck
; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes
; Natural environments
; Soil water deficit
; Water productivity
; Water use efficiency
; Climate change
; air temperature
; biomass
; canopy
; carbon dioxide
; climate change
; concentration (composition)
; growth modeling
; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
; irrigation
; rainfall
; shrub
; soil water
; transpiration
; water availability
; water use efficiency
; Citrus sinensis
英文摘要: The objective of the present study was to develop a simulation model of the growth of sweet orange (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) cv. Natal in response to climate change based on system dynamics principles. The model was developed based on a system analysis of the factors that affect crop biomass formation. The main variables considered were atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), air temperature, transpiration, rainfall, water deficit, irrigation depth, canopy volume, and the respective interrelationships. Simulations were performed for the period from 2010 to 2100. Overall, the model results indicate that the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, combined with air temperatures higher, lower, or equal to those generally occurring in natural environments, will result in higher water use efficiency by orange trees. When other factors, such as the soil water deficit, were included in the model, the water productivity was predicted to be lower in 2100 without irrigation than when irrigation was included. It is concluded that the model is suitable for determination of the effects of climate change on water use efficiency of sweet orange cv. Natal. Increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations will result in higher CO2 assimilation in orange trees and therefore in increased biomass production (g) per unit of water transpired (mm). However, this positive effect may be masked by other effects of atmospheric CO2 increases, mainly those associated with temperature. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83978
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Depto. de Engenharia Rural, UNESP/FCA, C.P. 237, Botucatu, SP, Brazil
Recommended Citation:
Pereira F.F.S.,Sánchez-Román R.M.,Orellana González A.M.G.. Simulation model of the growth of sweet orange (Citrus sinensis L. Osbeck) cv. Natal in response to climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-01-02)