DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1980-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85020074407
论文题名: Towards a balanced view of Arctic shipping: estimating economic impacts of emissions from increased traffic on the Northern Sea Route
作者: Yumashev D. ; van Hussen K. ; Gille J. ; Whiteman G.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 143
结束页码: 155
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Carbon dioxide
; Economic analysis
; Economics
; Environmental impact
; Ice
; Sea ice
; Ships
; Transportation routes
; Commercial shipping
; East Asian countries
; Emissions scenarios
; Global-mean temperature
; Ice-free conditions
; Northern sea routes
; Policy instruments
; Shipping companies
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate feedback
; compensation system
; economic growth
; economic impact
; economic instrument
; emission inventory
; global trade
; income distribution
; sea ice
; shipping
; trade-environment relations
; traffic emission
; Africa
; Arctic
; Europe
; India
; Nucleopolyhedrovirus
英文摘要: The extensive melting of Arctic sea ice driven by climate change provides opportunities for commercial shipping due to shorter travel distances of up to 40% between Asia and Europe. It has been estimated that around 5% of the world’s trade could be shipped through the Northern Sea Route (NSR) in the Arctic alone under year-round and unhampered navigability, generating additional income for many European and East Asian countries. Our analysis shows that for Arctic sea ice conditions under the RCP8.5 emissions scenario and business restrictions facing shipping companies, NSR traffic will increase steadily from the mid-2030s onwards, although it will take over a century to reach the full capacity expected for ice-free conditions. However, in order to achieve a balanced view of Arctic shipping, it is important to include its detrimental environmental impacts, most notably emissions of short-lived pollutants such as black carbon, as well as CO2 and non-CO2 emissions associated with the additional economic growth enabled by NSR. The total climate feedback of NSR could contribute 0.05% (0.04%) to global mean temperature rise by 2100 under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), adding $2.15 trillion ($0.44 trillion) to the NPV of total impacts of climate change over the period until 2200 for the SSP2 socio-economic scenario. The climatic losses offset 33% (24.7%) of the total economic gains from NSR under RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), with the biggest losses set to occur in Africa and India. These findings call for policy instruments aimed at reducing emissions from Arctic shipping and providing compensation to the affected regions. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83979
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
There are no files associated with this item.
作者单位: Lancaster University Management School, Lancaster, United Kingdom; Erasmus University Rotterdam, Rotterdam, Netherlands; Ecorys, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Recommended Citation:
Yumashev D.,van Hussen K.,Gille J.,et al. Towards a balanced view of Arctic shipping: estimating economic impacts of emissions from increased traffic on the Northern Sea Route[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-01-02)