DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1971-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019187176
论文题名: Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level
作者: Donnelly C. ; Greuell W. ; Andersson J. ; Gerten D. ; Pisacane G. ; Roudier P. ; Ludwig F.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 143, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 13
结束页码: 26
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Catchments
; Global warming
; Hydrology
; Runoff
; Snow
; Climate projection
; Hydrological impacts
; Hydrological indicators
; Hydrological models
; Mean annual runoffs
; Pre-industrial levels
; River catchment
; Snow water equivalent
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate effect
; discharge
; ensemble forecasting
; evapotranspiration
; global warming
; hydrological modeling
; hydrometeorology
; runoff
; snow water equivalent
; snowpack
; Balkan
; France
; Norway
; Poland [Central Europe]
; Portugal
; Scandinavia
; Sweden
; Turkmenistan
英文摘要: Impacts of climate change at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C mean global warming above preindustrial level are investigated and compared for runoff, discharge and snowpack in Europe. Ensembles of climate projections representing each of the warming levels were assembled to describe the hydro-meteorological climate at 1.5, 2 and 3 °C. These ensembles were then used to force an ensemble of five hydrological models and changes to hydrological indicators were calculated. It is seen that there are clear changes in local impacts on evapotranspiration, mean, low and high runoff and snow water equivalent between a 1.5, 2 and 3 °C degree warmer world. In a warmer world, the hydrological impacts of climate change are more intense and spatially more extensive. Robust increases in runoff affect the Scandinavian mountains at 1.5 °C, but at 3 °C extend over most of Norway, Sweden and northern Poland. At 3 °C, Norway is affected by robust changes in all indicators. Decreases in mean annual runoff are seen only in Portugal at 1.5 °C warming, but at 3 °C warming, decreases to runoff are seen around the entire Iberian coast, the Balkan Coast and parts of the French coast. In affected parts of Europe, there is a distinct increase in the changes to mean, low and high runoff at 2 °C compared to 1.5 °C, strengthening the case for mitigation to lower levels of global warming. Between 2 and 3 °C, the changes in low and high runoff levels continue to increase, but the changes to mean runoff are less clear. Changes to discharge in Europe’s larger rivers are less distinct due to the lack of homogenous and robust changes across larger river catchments, with the exception of Scandinavia where discharges increase with warming level. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83983
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Swedish Meteorological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Earth System Sciences Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Wageningen, Netherlands; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; ENEA, Rome, Italy; Agence Française de Développement, Paris, France
Recommended Citation:
Donnelly C.,Greuell W.,Andersson J.,et al. Impacts of climate change on European hydrology at 1.5, 2 and 3 degrees mean global warming above preindustrial level[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,143(2018-01-02)