DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1963-7
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85019146893
论文题名: Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise
作者: Kulp S. ; Strauss B.H.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 142, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 477
结束页码: 489
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon
; Floods
; Population statistics
; Carbon emissions
; Coastal communities
; Coastal flooding
; Coastal municipalities
; Emission scenario
; Exposure assessment
; Extreme flood events
; Property value
; Sea level
; adaptive management
; coastal zone
; coastal zone management
; disaster management
; elevation
; flood
; flooding
; infrastructure
; lidar
; mitigation
; prediction
; sea level change
; threshold
; topography
; Boston
; Florida [United States]
; Massachusetts
; Miami
; United States
英文摘要: Rising sea levels are increasing the exposure of populations and infrastructure to coastal flooding. While earlier studies estimate magnitudes of future exposure or project rates of sea level rise, here, we estimate growth rates of exposure, likely to be a key factor in how effectively coastal communities can adapt. These rates may not correlate well with sea level rise rates due to varying patterns of topography and development. We integrate exposure assessments based on LiDAR elevation data with extreme flood event distributions and sea level rise projections to compute the expected annual exposure of population, housing, roads, and property value in 327 medium-tolarge coastal municipalities circumscribing the contiguous USA, and identify those localities that could experience rapid exposure growth sometime this century.We define a rate threshold of 0.25% additive increase in expected annual exposure per year, based on its rarity of present-day exceedance. With unchecked carbon emissions under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, the number of cities exceeding the threshold reaches 33 (18-59, 90%CI) by 2050 and 90 (22-196) by 2100, including the cities of Boston and Miami. Sharp cuts under RCP 2.6 limit the end-ofcentury total to 28 (12-105), versus a baseline of 7 cities in 2000. The methods and results presented here offer a new way to illustrate the consequences of different emission scenarios or mitigation efforts, and locally assess the urgency of coastal adaptation measures. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/83995
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Climate Central, Princeton, NJ, United States
Recommended Citation:
Kulp S.,Strauss B.H.. Rapid escalation of coastal flood exposure in US municipalities from sea level rise[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,142(2018-03-04)