DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1901-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016127376
论文题名: A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula
作者: Kim K.-Y. ; Kim Y.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 142, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 23
结束页码: 36
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Gages
; Orthogonal functions
; Tide gages
; Uncertainty analysis
; Empirical Orthogonal Function
; Ensemble empirical mode decompositions (EEMD)
; Future projections
; Natural variability
; Quadratic modeling
; Sea level trends
; Sealevel change
; Tide gauge data
; Sea level
; empirical orthogonal function analysis
; model validation
; reconstruction
; satellite laser ranging
; sea level change
; tide gauge
; time series analysis
; Korea
英文摘要: In an attempt to estimate accurate local sea level change, “sea level trend” modes are identified and separated from natural variability via cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function (CSEOF) analysis applied to both the tide gauge data (1965–2013) and the reconstruction data (1950–2010) around the Korean Peninsula. For the tide gauge data, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) method is also used to estimate sea level trend to understand an uncertainty from different analysis tools. The three trend models—linear, quadratic, and exponential—are fitted to the amplitude time series of the trend mode so that future projection of sea level can be made. Based on a quadratic model, the rate of local sea level rise (SLR) is expected to be 4.63 ± 1.1 mm year−1 during 2010–2060. The estimates of “local” sea level trend vary up to ∼30%. It should be noted that, although the three trend models estimate similar sea level trends during the observational period, the projected sea level trend and subsequent SLR differ significantly from one model to another and between the tide gauge data and the reconstruction data; this results in a substantial uncertainty in the future SLR around the Korean Peninsula. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84003
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Seoul National University, Seoul, South Korea; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Yonsei University, Seoul, South Korea
Recommended Citation:
Kim K.-Y.,Kim Y.. A comparison of sea level projections based on the observed and reconstructed sea level data around the Korean Peninsula[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,142(2018-01-02)