DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1925-0
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85014058165
论文题名: Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape
作者: Halofsky J.S. ; Halofsky J.E. ; Hemstrom M.A. ; Morzillo A.T. ; Zhou X. ; Donato D.C.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 142, 期: 2018-01-02 起始页码: 83
结束页码: 95
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Animals
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Financial markets
; Fires
; Forestry
; Timber
; Climate change scenarios
; Climate management
; Dry-mixed conifers
; Ecosystem services
; Management scenarios
; Mixed-conifer forests
; Quantitative assessments
; State and transitions
; Climate change
; climate change
; coniferous forest
; ecosystem service
; land management
; mixed forest
; timber
; trade-off
; wildfire
; Oregon
; United States
; Coniferophyta
英文摘要: While ecosystem services and climate change are often examined independently, quantitative assessments integrating these fields are needed to inform future land management decisions. Using climate-informed state-and-transition simulations, we examined projected trends and tradeoffs for a suite of ecosystem services under four climate change scenarios and two management scenarios (active management emphasizing fuel treatments and no management other than fire suppression) in a fire-prone landscape of dry and moist mixed-conifer forests in central Oregon, USA. Focal ecosystem services included fire potential (regulating service), timber volume (provisioning service), and potential wildlife habitat (supporting service). Projections without climate change suggested active management in dry mixed-conifer forests would create more open forest structures, reduce crown fire potential, and maintain timber stocks, while in moist mixed-conifer forests, active management would reduce crown fire potential but at the expense of timber stocks. When climate change was considered, however, trends in most ecosystem services changed substantially, with large increases in wildfire area predominating broad-scale trends in outputs, regardless of management approach (e.g., strong declines in timber stocks and habitat for closed-forest wildlife species). Active management still had an influence under a changing climate, but as a moderator of the strong climate-driven trends rather than being a principal driver of ecosystem service outputs. These results suggest projections of future ecosystem services that do not consider climate change may result in unrealistic expectations of benefits. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84016
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Washington State Department of Natural Resources, 1111 Washington Street SE, PO Box 47014, Olympia, WA, United States; School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, PO Box 352100, Seattle, WA, United States; Institute for Natural Resources, Portland State University, PO Box 751, Portland, OR, United States; U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station, 620 SW Main, Suite 400, Portland, OR, United States; Department of Natural Resources and the Environment, University of Connecticut, 1376 Storrs Rd., Storrs, CT, United States
Recommended Citation:
Halofsky J.S.,Halofsky J.E.,Hemstrom M.A.,et al. Divergent trends in ecosystem services under different climate-management futures in a fire-prone forest landscape[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,142(2018-01-02)