globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1964-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85018804927
论文题名:
Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: Comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals
作者: Van Soest H.L.; Reis L.A.; Drouet L.; Van Vuuren D.P.; Den Elzen M.G.J.; Tavoni M.; Akimoto K.; Calvin K.V.; Fragkos P.; Kitous A.; Luderer G.; Riahi K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 142, 期:2018-03-04
起始页码: 491
结束页码: 504
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Carbon dioxide ; Climate change ; Emission control ; Emission reduction targets ; Global temperatures ; Global-mean temperature ; Integrated assessment models ; Low carbon energies ; Low-carbon emissions ; Primary energy source ; Substantial reduction ; Budget control ; carbon emission ; comparative study ; cost analysis ; emission control ; emission inventory ; energy resource ; environmental policy ; European Union ; international agreement ; temperature ; Brazil ; Canada ; Federal District [Mexico] ; Japan ; Mexico City ; Mexico [North America] ; South Korea ; United States
英文摘要: In order to evaluate the effectiveness of climate policy, it is important to understand emission trends and policies at the national level. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes (Intended) Nationally Determined Contributions, so-called (I)NDCs, outlining the contribution of different Parties to the overall target of the agreement to limit global mean temperature increase to well below 2 °C. Here, we assess emission trajectories and the energy system transition of 11 major economies (in the remainder: countries) projected by integrated assessment models (IAMs) for baseline and cost-optimal 450 ppm CO2 eq mitigation scenarios and compare the results with the (I)NDCs. Limiting global temperature increase to below 2 °C implies a substantial reduction of the estimated available carbon budget for each country. The national carbon budgets between 2010 and 2100 showed reductions between the baseline and the 2 °C consistent mitigation scenario ranging from 52% in South Korea to 95% in Brazil. While in the baseline scenario, the share of low-carbon primary energy sources is projected to remain around 15% (with Brazil being a notable exception, reaching 30%); in themitigation scenarios, the share of low-carbon energy is projected to increase to over 50% in 2050 in nearly all countries, with the EU, Japan and Canada reaching the largest shares. Comparison with the (I)NDCs shows that in Brazil, Canada, the EU, Mexico (conditional target), South Korea and the USA, the emission reduction targets of the NDCs are closer to the mitigation requirement of the 2 °C scenario; in other countries, however, there is still a large gap. The national detail of the indicators adds to the literature on low-carbon emission pathways, assists the assessment of the Paris Agreement and provides support to national policymakers to identify focus areas for climate policy in the coming years. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017.
Citation statistics:
被引频次[WOS]:37   [查看WOS记录]     [查看WOS中相关记录]
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84023
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 30314, The Hague, Netherlands; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, Milan, Italy; Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Corso Magenta, 63, Milan, Italy; Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, P.O. Box 80.115, Utrecht, Netherlands; Politecnico di Milano, Department of Management and Economics, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, Milan, Italy; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, 9-2, Kizugawadai, Kizugawa-Shi, Kyoto, Japan; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, 9, Iroon Politechniou Street, Zografou Campus, Athens, Greece; European Commission, DG Joint Research Centre (JRC), Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (IPTS), Unit J1-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport, Edificio Expo, C/Inca Garcilaso, 3, Sevilla, Spain; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), P.O. Box 60 12 03, Potsdam, Germany; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg, Austria

Recommended Citation:
Van Soest H.L.,Reis L.A.,Drouet L.,et al. Low-emission pathways in 11 major economies: Comparison of cost-optimal pathways and Paris climate proposals[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,142(2018-03-04)
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