DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1956-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85016927497
论文题名: Cold- and heat-related mortality: A cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change
作者: Huber V. ; Ibarreta D. ; Frieler K.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 142, 期: 2018-03-04 起始页码: 407
结束页码: 418
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Damage detection
; Global warming
; Pitting
; Calibration schemes
; Cardio-vascular disease
; Cardiovascular mortality
; Economic assessments
; Epidemiological studies
; Heat related mortality
; Integrated assessment models
; Urban population
; Climate change
; calibration
; cardiovascular system
; climate change
; data set
; economic analysis
; global warming
; integrated approach
; mortality
; public health
; vulnerability
英文摘要: Several economic assessments of climate change build on the assumption that reductions of cold-related mortality will overcompensate increases in heat-related mortality at least for moderate levels of global warming. Due to the lack of suitable epidemiological studies with sufficient spatial coverage, many of these assessments rely on one particular dataset: projections of temperature-related mortality in 17 countries published almost 20 years ago. Here, we reanalyse this dataset with a focus on cardiovascular mortality and present evidence for two flaws in the original analysis, which would imply a significant bias towards finding net mortality benefits from climate change: (i) the combination of mortality data for all ages with data specific to the elderly and (ii) the confounding of seasonal effects with direct temperature effects on mortality. This bias appears to be further amplified in the integrated assessment models FUND and ENVISAGE, and related economic assessment tools relying on the same calibration scheme, because heat-related cardiovascular mortality is assumed to affect urban populations only in these models. In an exemplary calculation, we show that while FUND currently projects a net reduction of approximately 380,000 deaths from cardiovascular diseases globally per year at 1 °C of global warming, correcting for the two potential flaws and assuming equal vulnerability of urban and rural populations would result in a net increase of cardiovascular mortality, with approximately 150,000 net additional deaths globally per year. Our findings point to the urgent need of renewing damage functions on temperature-related mortality currently applied in some of the most widely used integrated assessment models. © Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2017. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84031
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Telegraphenberg A 31, Potsdam, Germany; European Commission-Joint Research Center, Edificio EXPO, Calle Inca Garcilaso 3, Sevilla, Spain
Recommended Citation:
Huber V.,Ibarreta D.,Frieler K.. Cold- and heat-related mortality: A cautionary note on current damage functions with net benefits from climate change[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,142(2018-03-04)