globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1794-y
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84990909781
论文题名:
Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins
作者: Vetter T.; Reinhardt J.; Flörke M.; van Griensven A.; Hattermann F.; Huang S.; Koch H.; Pechlivanidis I.G.; Plötner S.; Seidou O.; Su B.; Vervoort R.W.; Krysanova V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期:3
起始页码: 419
结束页码: 433
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models ; Hydrology ; Rivers ; Runoff ; Uncertainty analysis ; Watersheds ; General circulation model ; Hydrological changes ; Hydrological modeling ; Hydrological models ; Mean annual runoffs ; Multi scenarios ; River basins ; Sources of uncertainty ; Climate change ; climate change ; CMIP ; flow field ; hydrological change ; hydrological modeling ; river basin ; runoff ; uncertainty analysis ; Ganges Basin ; Lena Basin ; Rhine Basin ; Russian Federation ; Tagus Basin
英文摘要: This paper aims to evaluate sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in twelve large-scale river basins worldwide, considering the mean flow and the two runoff quantiles Q10 (high flow), and Q90 (low flow). First, changes in annual low flow, annual high flow and mean annual runoff were evaluated using simulation results from a multi-hydrological-model (nine hydrological models, HMs) and a multi-scenario approach (four Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs, five CMIP5 General Circulation Models, GCMs). Then, three major sources of uncertainty (from GCMs, RCPs and HMs) were analyzed using the ANOVA method, which allows for decomposing variances and indicating the main sources of uncertainty along the GCM-RCP-HM model chain. Robust changes in at least one runoff quantile or the mean flow, meaning a high or moderate agreement of GCMs and HMs, were found for five river basins: the Lena, Tagus, Rhine, Ganges, and Mackenzie. The analysis of uncertainties showed that in general the largest share of uncertainty is related to GCMs, followed by RCPs, and the smallest to HMs. The hydrological models are the lowest contributors of uncertainty for Q10 and mean flow, but their share is more significant for Q90. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84036
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

Files in This Item:

There are no files associated with this item.


作者单位: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium; UNESCO-IHE Institute for Water Education, Delft, Netherlands; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Leibniz University of Hannover, Institute of Water Resources Management, Hannover, Germany; Department of Civil Engineering, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada; National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Nanjing, China; Centre for Carbon, Water and Food, The University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

Recommended Citation:
Vetter T.,Reinhardt J.,Flörke M.,et al. Evaluation of sources of uncertainty in projected hydrological changes under climate change in 12 large-scale river basins[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)
Service
Recommend this item
Sava as my favorate item
Show this item's statistics
Export Endnote File
Google Scholar
Similar articles in Google Scholar
[Vetter T.]'s Articles
[Reinhardt J.]'s Articles
[Flörke M.]'s Articles
百度学术
Similar articles in Baidu Scholar
[Vetter T.]'s Articles
[Reinhardt J.]'s Articles
[Flörke M.]'s Articles
CSDL cross search
Similar articles in CSDL Cross Search
[Vetter T.]‘s Articles
[Reinhardt J.]‘s Articles
[Flörke M.]‘s Articles
Related Copyright Policies
Null
收藏/分享
所有评论 (0)
暂无评论
 

Items in IR are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.