DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1911-6
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85011676277
论文题名: On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources
作者: Tanaka A. ; Takahashi K. ; Shiogama H. ; Hanasaki N. ; Masaki Y. ; Ito A. ; Noda H. ; Hijioka Y. ; Emori S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 4 起始页码: 775
结束页码: 782
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Biomass
; Carbon dioxide
; Climate change
; Climate models
; Ecology
; Ecosystems
; Erosion
; Runoff
; Biomass-burning
; Climate change impact assessments
; Climate impacts
; Climate scenarios
; Global-mean temperature
; Net primary production
; Pre-industrial levels
; Terrestrial ecosystems
; Water resources
; biomass burning
; carbon emission
; climate change
; climate effect
; global warming
; net primary production
; runoff
; soil erosion
英文摘要: We assessed whether the impacts of various increases in global mean temperature from preindustrial levels (∆GMT) on terrestrial ecosystems and water resources could be approximated by linear scaling of the impacts of ∆GMT = 2 °C at global and large regional scales. Impacts on net primary production, CO2 emissions from biomass burning, soil erosion, and surface runoff calculated by impact model simulations driven by multiple climate scenarios were assessed for a ∆GMT range of 1.5–4 °C. The results showed that the linear scaling was tolerable for net primary production, biomass burning, and surface runoff for a global average. However, for regional averages, the linear scaling was unacceptable for net primary production and biomass burning as well as for soil erosion at around 3 °C in numerous regions around the world. The linear scaling was judged to be tolerable for surface runoff in most regions where the impacts of 2 °C were statistically significant, but there were large uncertainties in future changes in surface runoff in many regions. Exploring the applicability of linear scaling could help simplify and streamline climate-change impact assessments at various ∆GMTs. Our approach leaves room for refinement, and further investigation will be worthwhile. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht. Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84038
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Hokkaido Agricultural Research Center, National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, 1 Hitsujigaoka, Toyohira, Sapporo, Hokkaido, Japan; Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Center for Global Environmental Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
Recommended Citation:
Tanaka A.,Takahashi K.,Shiogama H.,et al. On the scaling of climate impact indicators with global mean temperature increase: a case study of terrestrial ecosystems and water resources[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(4)