DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1923-2
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85013842684
论文题名: Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate
作者: Melvin A.M. ; Murray J. ; Boehlert B. ; Martinich J.A. ; Rennels L. ; Rupp T.S.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 4 起始页码: 783
结束页码: 795
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate models
; Cost estimating
; Costs
; Fires
; Gas emissions
; Greenhouse gases
; Annual area burned
; Changing climate
; Climate forcings
; Economic implications
; Fire management
; Human lives
; Projected area
; Suppression level
; Climate change
; climate change
; climate forcing
; climate modeling
; cost analysis
; fire management
; future prospect
; greenhouse gas
; surface area
; wildfire
; Alaska
; United States
英文摘要: Climate change is altering wildfire activity across Alaska, with increased area burned projected for the future. Changes in wildfire are expected to affect the need for management and suppression resources; however, the potential economic implications of these needs have not been evaluated. We projected area burned and associated response costs to 2100 under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios (representative concentration pathways (RCP) 8.5 and 4.5) using the Alaskan Frame-based Ecosystem Code (ALFRESCO) model. We calculated unique response costs for each of the four fire management options (FMOs) currently used in Alaska that vary in suppression level using federal cost data. Cumulative area burned between 2006 and 2100 across Alaska averaged 46.7M ha under five climate models for RCP8.5 and 42.1M ha for RCP4.5, with estimated cumulative response costs of $1.2–2.1B and $1.1–2.0B, respectively (3% discount). The largest response costs were incurred for the Full FMO, an area of high suppression priority, but where risks to human life and property are relatively low. Projected response costs across the century indicated that costs would be largest annually in the 2090 era (2080–2099) under RCP8.5, totaling $41.9–72.9M per year. For RCP4.5, the highest costs were projected for the 2070 era (2060–2079) and totaled $36.2–63.4M per year. The relative change in annual area burned showed larger increases for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5 across much of the state. The reported response costs are likely an underestimate and limited available data for state incurred costs suggests that realized costs could be ~68% higher. These findings indicate that climate change will have continued impacts on wildfire response costs across Alaska that vary among FMOs and global greenhouse gas emissions futures. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84040
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: AAAS Science & Technology Policy Fellow hosted by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, Washington, DC, United States; Industrial Economics, Inc., Cambridge, MA, United States; Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, Cambridge, MA, United States; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Climate Change Division, 1200 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, 6207A, Washington, DC, United States; International Arctic Research Center, Scenarios Network for Alaska & Arctic Planning, University of Alaska Fairbanks, Fairbanks, AK, United States
Recommended Citation:
Melvin A.M.,Murray J.,Boehlert B.,et al. Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(4)