globalchange  > 气候减缓与适应
DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1841-8
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-84992707492
论文题名:
Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide
作者: Huang S.; Kumar R.; Flörke M.; Yang T.; Hundecha Y.; Kraft P.; Gao C.; Gelfan A.; Liersch S.; Lobanova A.; Strauch M.; van Ogtrop F.; Reinhardt J.; Haberlandt U.; Krysanova V.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期:3
起始页码: 381
结束页码: 397
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change ; Electric power system interconnection ; Hydrology ; Watersheds ; Climate impact assessment ; Exceedance probability ; Hydrological modeling ; Hydrological process ; Process-based models ; Regional hydrological model ; Simulated discharges ; Statistical criterion ; Climate models ; climate effect ; discharge ; ensemble forecasting ; flood ; flow measurement ; hydrograph ; hydrological modeling ; performance assessment ; regional climate ; river basin ; seasonal variation ; Australia ; Darling Basin ; Murray-Darling Basin
英文摘要: In regional climate impact studies, good performance of regional models under present/historical climate conditions is a prerequisite for reliable future projections. This study aims to investigate the overall performance of 9 hydrological models for 12 large-scale river basins worldwide driven by the reanalysis climate data from the Water and Global Change (WATCH) project. The results serve as the basis of the application of regional hydrological models for climate impact assessment within the second phase of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison project (ISI-MIP2). The simulated discharges by each individual hydrological model, as well as the ensemble mean and median series were compared against the observed discharges for the period 1971–2001. In addition to a visual comparison, 12 statistical criteria were selected to assess the fidelity of model simulations for monthly hydrograph, seasonal dynamics, flow duration curves, extreme floods and low flows. The results show that most regional hydrological models reproduce monthly discharge and seasonal dynamics successfully in all basins except the Darling in Australia. The moderate flow and high flows (0.02–0.1 flow exceedance probabilities) are also captured satisfactory in many cases according to the performance ratings defined in this study. In contrast, the simulation of low flow is problematic for most basins. Overall, the ensemble discharge statistics exhibited good agreement with the observed ones except for extremes in particular basins that need further scrutiny to improve representation of hydrological processes. The performances of both the conceptual and process-based models are comparable in all basins. © 2016, Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
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资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84058
Appears in Collections:气候减缓与适应
气候变化事实与影响

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作者单位: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE), Oslo, Norway; UFZ-Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research, Leipzig, Germany; Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel, Kassel, Germany; State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Center for Global Change and Water Cycle, Hohai University, Nanjing, China; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Norrköping, Sweden; Justus-Liebig-University Gießen, Gießen, Germany; College of Territorial Resources and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu, China; Water Problems Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany; Centre for Carbon, Water and Food (FAE), The University of Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia; Institute of Water Resources Management, Leibniz University of Hannover, Hannover, Germany

Recommended Citation:
Huang S.,Kumar R.,Flörke M.,et al. Evaluation of an ensemble of regional hydrological models in 12 large-scale river basins worldwide[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(3)
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