DOI: 10.1007/s10584-017-1914-3
Scopus记录号: 2-s2.0-85013776728
论文题名: Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization
作者: Nordkvelle J. ; Rustad S.A. ; Salmivalli M.
刊名: Climatic Change
ISSN: 0165-0009
EISSN: 1573-1480
出版年: 2017
卷: 141, 期: 4 起始页码: 627
结束页码: 639
语种: 英语
Scopus关键词: Climate change
; Climate models
; Civil war
; Climate variability
; Climate variables
; Conventional control
; Monthly time scale
; Research designs
; Standardized precipitation index
; Climatology
; climate change
; design
; maximum likelihood analysis
; nature-society relations
; quantitative analysis
; research method
; violence
英文摘要: In recent years, the focus of quantitative climate-conflict research has shifted from studying civil wars to studying different types of conflicts, particularly non-state and communal conflicts, based on the argument that these local-level conflicts are a more likely consequence of climate variability than civil war. However, the findings from previous research do not paint a consistent picture of the relationship between climate and communal conflict. We posit that a research design treating the climate variable as randomized is a better and more convincing strategy for estimating the relationship between climate variability and communal conflict compared to the conventional control method to account for confounders. In this paper, we ask two questions: (1) what type of research design allows us to treat climate variability as randomized and (2) what can we say about the relationship between climate variability and communal violence using this new design? To answer these questions, we analyze six large subnational areas, at a monthly time scale, and calculate the standardized precipitation index for each area for each month. We find that both short, unusually dry intervals and long, unusually wet intervals increase the likelihood of a communal conflict event. © 2017, The Author(s). Citation statistics:
资源类型: 期刊论文
标识符: http://119.78.100.158/handle/2HF3EXSE/84061
Appears in Collections: 气候减缓与适应 气候变化事实与影响
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作者单位: Peace Research Institute Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Norwegian University of Life Science, Ås, Norway
Recommended Citation:
Nordkvelle J.,Rustad S.A.,Salmivalli M.. Identifying the effect of climate variability on communal conflict through randomization[J]. Climatic Change,2017-01-01,141(4)